If I am remembering correctly, this district probably isn’t a bell-weather, in that the win in 2010 should have placed it permanently in the Republican fold, but shortly after the election the new Rep. effectively moved to New Hampshire, and then attempted to run for re-election from there. I’m not sure how he made it out of the primary, but given that baggage, a loss would be expected, but the Dem can’t always expect to be running against such an incompetent Pub.
The 8th CD was also redistricted, with the addition of more conservative voters in the northern ex-urbs of the Twin Cities. In addition, the libs in the metro area are on a crusade to stop the opening of the Polymet copper-nickel mine. This has completely alienated the union mineworkers on the Iron Range. If Mills does a halfway decent job in office, the district could be in the Republican column for some time to come