“Do these predictions take into account voter fraud?”
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Yeah, that is the 900 pound gorilla in the room. All I can say is that Nate was probably more aware of its impact in the 2012 elections, which led to his projections being more accurate than the conservative pollsters back then. He was consistent in his projections in 2012.
This time, in 2014, I get the sense that Nate, if he hasn’t thrown in the towel already, has it bunched up in his hand, and his arm is cocked and ready to throw. His predicted percentage of Republican control is at 62.2% now and is rising with every iteration.
You’re familiar with his Maroon 6 model, yes?