“So dont you think the 62% chance, given polling since that model run, is a little low? Isnt he forced to move to 85% or higher pretty soon?”
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
He recompiles his percentages virtually every day. I have developed great respect for his methodology, even when I don’t like his conclusions. If he is at 62%, there is very good reason for him to be at that number.
Some things models don’t incorporate give me hope:
How Big Money failed to rescue Eric Cantor
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/2014-virginia-primary-big-money-eric-cantor-107699.html
Trying to find some of the last minute polling in Brat v Cantor.