Investment & Finance Thread Market Bounce Re-cap

Weekly investment & finance thread ^ | Oct. 19, 2014 | Freeper Investors

[Wyatt's Torch]

The return of market volatility sent the S&P 500 to a low of 1,820 last Wednesday, down 9.8% from its September 19 all-time high of 2,019.

There certainly hasn't been a shortage of concerns. The global economy has been slowing, commodity prices have been plunging, geopolitical tensions have been high, and the Ebola virus has been spreading. And all this came amid expectations that the Federal Reserve would soon tighten monetary policy.

But at 1,941 today, the market is now up a remarkable 6.6% in just five trading days.

"The question is this: "What changed so much in the macro picture since just four sessions ago when everyone was hitting the panic buttons??" NYSE floor governor Rich Barry asked. "Three things have changed:

"1) The Street is expecting the Fed to be slightly more dovish when they meet next week. Last Thursday, (perfect timing, I might add), St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the Fed "should consider delaying the end of its bond purchase program to halt the decline in inflation expectations." As we said in this note, the market, up until that point, did not even think it was possible to delay the end of QE. Although nobody really expects them to keep the QE program going, there is a growing sense that the FOMC will push out the date for interest rate hikes.

"2) Oil (finally) has stopped its free-fall, and is now simply languishing in the low 80s. As a result, energy stocks have stabilized and are not weighing heavily on the indices.

"3) With a cautioned sigh of relief, we add that the Ebola concerns have eased. It was a huge relief when it was reported that 43 of the 48 people on the original watch list in Dallas had passed the 21-day incubation period and appear to be in the clear. We believe that the Ebola scare was a HUGE issue for the market. If the news continues to be positive, we believe this relief (short-covering) rally will continue."

The S&P is almost as close to its high as it is to its recent low. Which way do we go next?

[expat_panama]

Proctor and Gamble and Walmart...

IBD rates PG at 72 (out of 100) hampered by institutional selling and relative strenth v. the general market.  WMT gets a meager 42 rating for a number of reasons.  Thats all I can find out 'cause neither had come up on my radar.

If only pfizer could come up with an ebola cure.

Some folks do well on wild card medical stars but I've never gotten anywhere w/ volatile unknowns.  Early last month I bot  CELG @ $91, held it for a month and dumped at the same price because it went nowhere and the overall market trend was down.  Now I read that it just soared to over $96 --close to its all time high on earnings news but I don't see any lesson there 'cause there were no signals.

Weird.  I just looked at the CBPO  I got yesterday and it's jumped 5% this morning... 

[expat_panama]

Interesting, they’re talking about how after the Obama tax hikes revenue increased at what comes out to 7% more per year. They should mention that the Bush tax cuts made revenue increase by 11% yearly.

[expat_panama]

waiting for the dow to drop below 10k before they buy back in are going to have to continue to wait

---and we'll keep hearing about how the market's a rigged house of cards.  In the mean time the Dow will continue to double every decade like it's been doing for the past 80 years.

[expat_panama]

interesting; tx!

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

;Don’t know if this has anything to do with the change in Mrk direction but Ottawa don’t sound good

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3218183/posts?q=1&;page=281

[kjam22]

yep

[expat_panama]

 

Thursday, October 23, 2014
Markets		yesterday		today
metals		Rally faltering w/ gold at $1,244.40 & silver at $17.05		Futures @ 3 hrs. before opening -0.45%
stocks		Early profit taking in lower volume; "Contrary to what the pessimists may have expected (or even wanted), the prior two sessions reflected more of a "two steps forward, one step back" cadence. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.8%, the S&P 500 0.7% ... "  (from here)		Futures +0.56%

Today's econ reports:

Initial Claims
Continuing Claims
FHFA Housing Price Index
Leading Indicators
Natural Gas Inventories
 

• Bond funds stock up on Treasuries in prep for market shock
• U.S. housing policy: The definition of insanity
• 5 Social Security changes coming in 2015
• Manufacturing moving from China to US: survey Large manufacturers are increasingly moving production back to the United States from China, according to a new report by The Boston Consulting Group released Thursday. In the third annual survey of US-based senior executives at manufacturing companies with annual sales of at least $1 billion, the… AFP
• What to Think When Platinum Prices Go Lower Than Gold Platinum is generally supposed to be worth more than gold per ounce. After all, it is more rare and considered more precious. 24/7 Wall St.
• Is the Census Bureau Manipulating Economic Data? - John Crudele, NYP
• Political Entrepreneurs Pushing Out Entrepeneurs - Wayne Brough, RCM
• The Best Day to Buy Airline Tickets - Scott McCartney, Wall Street Journal

[Wyatt's Torch]

4WMA Claims lowest since 2000:

[Wyatt's Torch]

LOL

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

“Ee’s pinin fer the fjords”

[expat_panama]

Whoa, that's quite an issue!  Thinking I'm going to have to post The dangers of deflation: The pendulum swings to the pit.

[Chgogal]

New York City - Bummer : (

Confirmed case of Ebola
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3218854/posts

And Loan Wolf ISIS Attack (perp had rabid islam facebook stuff)
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/24/nyregion/new-york-police-fatally-shoot-man-who-attacked-officer-with-a-hatchet.html

[expat_panama]

Happy Friday everyone!  Yesterday stocks lept forward in mixed volume while metals took a hit, and this morning futures have metals going back up and stocks heading back down.  New Home Sales comes out an hour and a half after opening bell,  Busy day before the weekend:

• U.S. stock futures tumble on reports of NY Ebola case S&P 500 mini futures fell as much as 0.7 percent, slipping from two-week highs hit the previous day on budding optimism from corporate earnings and the global economy. In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.1 percent, though Japan's Nikkei share average bucked the trend rising 1.0 percent, led by gains in drug companies.

• Pfizer's $11 billion buyback plan deflates AstraZeneca bid hopes

• Amazon loses $170M on flopping phone

• Microsoft sales beat Street hopes, cloud profits up

• Three major nations absent as China launches World Bank rival in Asia SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Australia, Indonesia and South Korea skipped the launch of a China-backed Asian infrastructure bank on Friday as the United States said it had concerns about the new rival to Western-dominated multilateral lenders. China's $50 billion Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)… Reuters

• Specter of no-inflation world looms over Fed's return to normal

Maybe I should start a new thread w/ that last one like w/ The dangers of deflation The pendulum swings to the pit...

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

Boy your up and at em early this morning.

[expat_panama]

lol! Had to get up early to take the wife to the bus terminal for a weekend meeting. [coffee...]  Meantime, stock futures are falling.  Ebola blamed; related thread here: Markets Are Sinking (Ebola Fears).

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

” Markets Are Sinking (Ebola Fears).”

Oh yea. I’m overweight, don’t get enough exercise, eat red meat and still smoke. I’m OK with all that but this ebola thing is scaring the crap out of me. Do I need a sarcasm tag?

[expat_panama]

Wait a sec, futures are back up. Never mind, ebola went away.

[BipolarBob]

I’m OK with all that but this ebola thing is scaring the crap out of me.

We're all gonna die from from Global Warming Weather Change anyways.

[Wyatt's Torch]