Nate Silver says the Des Moines Register poll is about spot-on historically, so we’ll see.
When Silver said that Obama was going to win in 2012, the right hammered him. When Silver said that the GOP had an 80% chance of winning the Senate in 2014 (back some months ago) the left hammered him.
Silver seems to be accurate, though. I hope he is...
I think I’d believe the people who actually live in Iowa over a bunch of academics in Connecticut.