[DCdude]

For some perspective, I went back to look at numbers from recall election of June 2012. Early voting up 9.1% or 24,218 votes. Total votes cast in 2012 2,516,065, GAB estimates about 2.5 million this election. Walker won recall by 171,105. Anyone who voted for Walker then is probably supporting Walker now, so for Dems to steal the election, I calculate they would need a turnout of about 2,750,000, and win 3 out of 4 of the additional quarter million votes for Burke to prevail.

2.75 million votes is 63.8% turnout vs the 56% GAB is anticipating for this election. In 2012 POTUS election 3,071,434 votes or 74.7% turnout.

Just judging from my usual polling place and what I am hearing from the WOW counties (Washington, Waukesha and my Ozaukee County) turnout is on par with presidential election. Dane County (Madison) will see similar turnout, but I doubt the unionistas and Dem machine can drive enough Milwaukee voters to the polls to increase turnout enough to defeat Walker.

My guesstimate is Walker by a smaller margin than the recall, but still probably 51.5 to 48.5 margin over Burke.

Will post later as key counties start reporting

[Gumdrop]

I hope you are correct in this prediction. Maybe it will be an even wider margin.

I have a sister in Madison and a cousin in Menomonee Falls. Also, have a niece who works for Scott Walker. All are praying for victory in Wisconsin today.

[sergeantdave]

My guess:

Walker - 54%
Burke - 45%

[afraidfortherepublic]

DCDude prognosticates huge Wisconsin turnout — hoping for a Walker win.

FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, this Wisconsin interest ping list.

[biggerten]

I am less confident, there was a component to the recall election where folks voted for Walker just because they didn’t think there should be a recall, not for support.

Don’t know if it would be a factor, hoping for a Walker win, he’s taken some big strides.

[UB355]

Here is what Wisconsin voters are saying at exit polls

“Close to half the voters who went to the polls in Wisconsin named the economy the number one issue, according the first preliminary exit polls of people after they cast their votes.

More than a quarter named health care as the most important issue; about one in seven named immigration and about one in ten named foreign policy.

A clear majority of voters said the country was seriously off on the wrong track.

More than half expressed negative views of the Obama Administration, and more people disapproved than approved of the job the president is doing. But more than half also expressed negative views of Republican leaders in Congress.

Overwhelmingly, voters said they worried about the direction of the nation’s economy, with more than third saying they were very worried.

Close to half said economic conditions in Wisconsin are better than four years ago; and about half said they were either worse or the same.

Less than half said their own job situation was better than it was four years ago. “

[Secret Agent Man]

you need to factor in democrats stuffing ballots. 1-2% of votes, all democrat.

[Secret Agent Man]

my feel is that he’s re-elected.

it’s easier to get people to turn out FOR something AND against another than just trying to turn people out only against someone.

plus people here have felt very very good shoving it up the national democrat machine’s ass, sideways, since 2010, and the recall election win.