“I think you meant to say Cuomo must have carried the 25th.”
Oops, of course. Astorino carried Monroe County, but not by enough for him to have been able to carry the CD once the GOP exurbs were sloughed off.
I would love to see redistricters combine Rochester, Syracuse, Ithaca and Binghampton into an über-Democrat octopus (connected with Democrat Finger Lakes towns such as Auburn; it would leave adjacent CDs comfortably Republican. Stupid urban voters.
I just checked out the Monroe County towns left out of the NY-25, and they aren’t as strongly GOP as I thought I remembered (heavily GOP Riga, Ogden and Parma are in the NY-25), so Cuomo carried the NY-25 more narrowly than I had assumed.
The NY-25 includes all of Monroe County except for Wheatland, Rush and Mendon in the south and Hamlin and a very small portion of Clarkson in the NW. See http://nationalmap.gov/small_scale/printable/images/pdf/congdist/pagecgd113_ny.pdf for a map of the NY-25 and http://www2.census.gov/plmap/pl_blk/st36_NewYork/c36055_Monroe/PB36055_000.pdf for a township map of Monroe County.
In 2004, Romney got 51.61% in Wheatland (2,449 total votes cast), 52.98% in Rush (2,063 votes), 54.82% in Mendon (5,181 votes), and 58.87% in Hamlin (3,798 votes); Romney got 56.56% in Clarkson as a whole, but few of those votes were cast in the NY-25. That gives Romney a tad above 555 in the Monroe towns that are not in the NY-25. Astorino’s vote percentage in Monroe County was around 8.2% higher than Romney’s, so let’s assume that he got 63.5% in the excluded towns. If those towns cast around 4.2% of the county vote, then Astorino probably got a bit under 47% in the NY-25, meaning that Cuomo likely carried the NY-25 by around 1%.
BTW, did you know that Astorino probably carried the Albany-based NY-20 (Tonko’s CD)? Cuomo only carried Albany County by 2,000 votes! (Sure, the Green had a lot to do with that, but still.)
Don’t know how true it is, but a credible-sounding guy called a talk show, and said he was at a bar, and was told some in Westchester County are pro-Astorino, but voted against him because they did not want to lose him, and become the sixth borough.
Guess anything is possible. :)