OIL GIANT WARNS: Crude Could Crash To $30

Financial Post businessinsider.com ^ | 11-30-2014 | Claudia Cattaneo, Financial Post; Myles Udland

[thackney]

to a low of $8 in 1986

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Are you sure about single digits back then?

Daily crude oil price back to 1983
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RCLC1&f=D

[JRandomFreeper]

Where does that oil go? Does it disappear if some companies go bankrupt?

I'm familiar with bankrupt oil companies, being from Texas.

/johnny

[Karl Spooner]

On the latter, the big question is who has the $$ to manipulate world markets and who benefits from a temporary oil crash?

The Central Banks can do it by short selling. The closest study and evidence of this has been done by GATA in the gold market. They get nowhere in the courts though. It's locked down tight.

[sagar]

Low oil prices are bad for many US States’s economies. Also, it means that domestic drilling becomes less economical. Drill baby drill will suffer for sure.

[LOC1]

Actually, I am certain. I was trading crude at the time and remember the intra day low quite vividly.

[thackney]

intra day low

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okay

[LouAvul]

Exactly. Any business or person or airline that depends in any way upon oil will benefit. That pretty much describes ........ well, almost everybody.

[thackney]

Did your trading involve the west coast at that time? I am amazed at how low the Alaska crude went at that time.

Alaska North Slope First Purchase Price
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=F005071__3&f=M

[CPT Clay]

can you say fear mongering?

[LOC1]

I did trade ANS, but not as a “first purchaser.” Generally the spot market at that time was for cargoes of ANS in the US Gulf Coast at prices a few dollars a barrel above the “first purchaser” prices in the table you referenced.

[familyop]

"LOL."

Yes. His imitation of the English was pretty funny.

[The_Media_never_lie]

This does not bode well for the economy.

You gotta be kidding!

No, I am not kidding. Orderly markets are good, collapsing markets are bad. There is usually a reason that a market collapses. In this case, is it really the fact that there is too much more supply than demand, or is it that the economy is just too weak to pick up the slack in the cheap oil due to jobs lost, too high taxes, Obamacare, environmental obstructionists, etc. We will soon see.

This will pretty much kill the central plains boom (North Dakota, etc.) That is a lot of jobs and a good chunk of the economy.

Some inflation is good; rising stock prices, wages, increased job creation etc. It looks like we may be seeing deflation instead of inflation.

[CPT Clay]

Gold is for mortgage pmts, silver is for groceries, etc.

[plain talk]

Yep. I would say enjoy it while we can. The prices will go back up. Once people are used to $2 - 2.50 a gallon gasoline or less it is always tough when prices rise again.

[CPT Clay]

My cost basis is twice yours.

[RegulatorCountry]

Like washing a car invariably causes rain the next day, my driving an economical car did this, lol. I bought a Corolla back in 2008 when gas was $4.00, kept it. Started driving a Subaru turbo that gets OK mileage but requires premium, gas of course spiked. It’s been back and forth like that since then. I’ve been driving the Corolla of late, so boom! the price was destined to fall shortly thereafter.

[ROCKLOBSTER]

OK, let me rephrase that. First, it should have been .75.

In order to get a quicky price guesstimate, you divide the price per barrel by 42(gallons)

$65/42 = $1.55 (per gallon of crude)

Then you divide the price per gallon by the factor .75

1.55 /.75 = 2.07

Then you add the tax (.45)

$2.07 + .45 = $2.52

[terycarl]

I was in the business for a while and right now the normal price of oil should be around $60. The government loves to subsidize irrelevant forms of energy ie;solar and wind...let them subsidize the obtaining of fossil fuels and if we have an excess...we sell it to help recoup our costs. If we do not allow the price to exceed $60 we put the Russians and the Saudis and the Venezuelans virtually out of existance.

[Bogey78O]

Back in 2009 I actually got to meet Robert Higgs. He said precisely that. Didn’t know when but said eventually well get a surge of deflation followed by hyperinflation. I asked if it was halpening back then but he didn’t seem to be certain. I believe he said we were feeling it to a degree but didn’t seem convinced it was ready to hit.

[terycarl]

As much as I like paying less for gas, be aware, this is all about OPEC, particularly our ‘pals’ the Saudis, driving down the price, in order to put US production, via fracking, out of business. Once this happens, the price will shoot up, like a rocket

you are 100% correct...however if we play this right by subsidizing the industry for a while, we will win big. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela etc. all depend on high oil prices just to survive....we don't. Keep the prices as low as possible and let them die on the vine...2 years should do it.