Posted on 12/10/2014 12:02:12 PM PST by abb
So says a Roll Call story…
"Rep. John Fleming, R-La., is “very interested” in running for Senate in 2016 if Republican Sen. David Vitter is elected governor next year.
Louisiana only wrapped up the 2014 Senate race a few days ago, but soon state operatives may start thinking about another race. Vitter has already announced an exploratory committee to run for governor in 2015. If Vitter wins, Fleming said, he wants to succeed him in the Senate.
“I’m very interested in that possibility,” he told CQ Roll Call Tuesday during votes at the Capitol. “I think that we need, you know, Sen. Vitter is quite conservative, and I think we need to replace a good strong conservative with another conservative.”
The congressman contemplated challenging Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., who losther seat Saturday to Rep. Bill Cassidy, R-La.. But he said he deferred to Cassidy to “simplify the equation.”
“I’m very interested in that and certainly talking with folks back home. I’m getting a very positive response from people,” Fleming said of a possible 2016 run. He said he had spoken to Vitter as well.
“He and I are good friends,” Fleming said. “We have a great working relationship. I didn’t ask for any commitment, he didn’t offer any … He knows that I’m very engaged in this.”"
It’s not a revelation that John Fleming wants to run for Vitter’s seat in 2016. He’s put out feelers along those lines for some time.
Fleming is going to have some competition, though. Whoever doesn’t win the governor’s race will be in a position to run, so a Jay Dardenne or Scott Angelle could well be in the mix. Elbert Guillory might decide to take a crack at the seat. Before he struggled to put away Forest Wright in his re-election bid, Eric Skrmetta had some buzz around him for a potential run. There are people who want Jeff Landry to take a stab at the race, though Landry himself has said he’s not comfortable with running for Attorney General next fall, winning and then turning around and running for the Senate. And there’s Rob Maness, who might see that it’s his turn to get the seat.
And it’s possible Mary Landrieu might run for Vitter’s seat. In fact, that’s probably the standard Republican activists and donors in Louisiana should evaluate potential Republican candidates on – can this person beat Mary Landrieu in a runoff? – before choosing someone to support.
What’s likely is there won’t be a serious Democrat Senate candidate, or if there is one it’ll be someone like Kip Holden or Cedric Glover, who has nothing better to do and wants to use that bid as a gambit for emerging as the leader of the black faction of that party, if not the party itself.
And then there is the issue of who Vitter, as governor, would appoint to fill his Senate seat should he win. He’s said he wouldn’t make that appointment based on a deal he would make, and that sounds nice. But the fact is Vitter can’t make that appointment without some sort of deal in place unless he was to put in a placeholder – like a Bob Livingston, or Richard Baker or Henson Moore, who wouldn’t have much longevity in any event and wouldn’t run to defend the seat. Anyone else, who would seek re-election, would be making a deal with Vitter.
He could go with Guillory, as an attempt to move the black vote from D to R in some small part, but he couldn’t do that with much of a lasting impact unless he was able to get Fleming and the other potential Republican contenders to stand down for 2016, and there would be a lot of grumbling if he made such a play.
Fleming’s goal at this point ought to be to make himself the “inevitable” candidate, in much the same vein Cassidy was able to do. There will be a strong sentiment in favor of a wide-open intra-Republican race, but if it’s obvious he’s going to win not only can he get the secondary candidates out of the race but he can present Vitter with more or less a fait accompli and say “why would you delay my ascension to the Senate? It’s obvious. Let’s get together and pick somebody we’ll endorse for my House seat.”
To do that, he’s probably going to need to spend as much time in New Orleans and Baton Rouge as he spends in Washington and Shreveport. Don’t be surprised to see Fleming camping out in the southern part of the state all next year.
ping
When does the pot of Louisiana politics ever STOP boiling??
HE DAMN SURE SHOULD!
I voted for Maness in the primary, then Cassidy in the runoff, Cassidy owes him that for his campaigning efforts in the runoff.
Elections dates subject to change by legislature:
2015 Governor
Oct. 24... Primary
Nov. 21... Run Off
2016 Presidential/Congressional
Nov. 8... Primary
Dec 10... Run Off
Mary Landrieu is a baby killing lap dog for 0bama who is going to ruin our health care system
Bill Cassidy is a millionaire who hates poor people and does not want to tax rich people only poor and middle class people. He also wants to take away health benefits for old people and he rips off tax payers.
Rob Maness is going to go to Washington, kick the crap out of everyone and then feed their remains to alligators. Then he's going to wash his truck.
Vitter may run into some trouble in the Shreveport area. He voted against the GM bailout. Then GM started closing plants, but fortunately the Shreveport GM truck plant escaped closure. Until the next day. I believe the Shreveport was the only one in the south to be closed. There was no reason to close the plant except to spite Vitter.
“And it’s possible Mary Landrieu might run for Vitter’s seat.”
It is of course possible but highly improbable. She will never live down her love affair with Obama, who scorned her in November. “Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.”
Has Jindal been any good as the governor? My impression is that on a scale of 1 to 10, he’s a 2 in terms of political skills.
IMHO, he has been a mixed bag. Right after he took office in 2008, he began spending money like a drunk sailor, probably to curry favor with legislators, as he would need their votes for stuff. He supported a legislative pay raise that left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth. It was defeated.
However, he won reelection in 2011 handily. He then took on the teacher’s union and rammed through some reforms, including teacher assessments. It infuriated the government deadhead lobby, and they, along with the newspapers, have punished him for it. That is why his poll numbers are down.
Myself, I think it was a good thing. Government employee unions HAVE to be busted up, period.
LOL!!
So, are we expecting a Vitter (R)/Dardenne (R) runoff?
Has Jindal been any good as the governor? My impression is that on a scale of 1 to 10, he’s a 2 in terms of political skills.
He came in with a tremendous amount of goodwill and had the potential to fundamentally change for the better.. Most of what he’s actually done has been cosmetic, and designed to look good to a national audience rather than actually make substantial reforms. That’s one of the reasons for his unpopularity. The other is that it’s a rare week without at least one out of state trip, and usually more than one-often to Iowa, New Hampshire, or other key states. He has clearly lost interest in governing the state, if he ever actually was interested. His eye is on bigger things, as ludicrous as that may seem with his 2% presidential poll numbers.
If I sound bitter, I am. Jindal could have been the best governor Louisiana ever had. Instead, once he leaves office, nothing much will really have changed. He’s an empty suit, as the primary process will reveal to the rest of the country.
I have no idea whether we’re looking at a Vitter-Dardenne run-off. The jungle primary is in October 2015, and there’s plenty of time for a prominent Democrat to jump in.
“And then there is the issue of who Vitter, as governor, would appoint to fill his Senate seat should he win.”
That begs the question: Would Vitter get to select his replacement? If he resigns from tbe Senate, say, the day before he is to be sworn in as governor, Jindal would be governor still and could appoint the new senator at such time. If Vitter wants to avoid the headache of having to name someone and being accused of having “made a deal,” or in any event getting grief because he didn’t appoint someone else, he may decide to resign from the Senate a few days early (explaining that he had to concentrate on the governorship that he was about to assume, and that having his replacement be appointed earlier would help him get his feet wet before the new session in January) and allow Jindal to appoint the new Senator. But if Vitter wants to appoint his successor, he should talk to Jindal about it and ask the legislature to change the law so that Senate vacancies cannot be filled until, say, three days have elapsed (modeled after the law passed in Alaska to prevent Democrat Governor Knowles from appointing Sen. Frank Murkowski’s successor a second before Murkowski took the oath as governor).
Now, as to who Vitter (or Jindal) should appoint, it’s complicated. State Senator Elbert Guillery would be the most inspired choice, whether as a placeholder until the special election in November 2016 or as someone who could run for reelection and serve a couple of terms (he is 70 years old, so he would be 71 when appointed, 72 when reelected, and 78 if he were reelected a second time). Guillery has proven his conservative bona fides through his words and (most importantly) deeds, and arguably is our most eloquent spokesman as to how liberal policies have failed blacks—and all Americans—and why thinking Americans should join the GOP. As has been noted, increasing the GOP’s share of the black vote from the current 8% or so to 25% would break the backs of the Democrats pretty much nationwide and would create a permanent Republican majority in bith houses of Congress and a virtual lock on the presidency. Moreover, if we look at it electorally, Guillery would be the least likely of the potential Republican senators to lose a run-off against a populist Democrat such as one of the Landrieus, since Guillery has been elected and reelected in a black- majority state senate district (granted, running as a Democrat, but one with a very conservative platform and voting record) and no white Democrat would get 90% of the black vote against him. So Guillory would be my first choice for the job.
But Guillery is running for Lt. Governor in 2015, which throws a wrench in any plans Vitter or Jindal may have. If Guillery wins the election (as I believe that he will), he may not be willing to resign to take the Senate job the day after being sworn in as Lt. Governor, and everyone involved would face a potential backlash from the voters (and it could sunk Guillery’s reelection in November 2016). Only were Guillery to lose the Lt. Gov. election would Vitter or Jindal be free to appoint Guillery to the Senate without disresoecting the office of the Lt. Gov., but, of course, if Guillery can’t win the Lt. Gov. election it wiuld be a sign that perhaps he’s not as formidable a candidate as we had assumed. Maybe Vitter could appoint a placeholder and Guillery can run for the Senate in 2015, but it still would mean announcing a Senate run within at most a few months of becoming Lt. Gov. and facing the voters less than a year after becoming Lt. Gov, which may not go over well with voters.
So what to do? I think that the likeliest scenario in which Guillery could become a U.S. senator is if Vitter is so far ahead in the gubernatorial polls that his election is seen as a fait accompli and Dardennes announces that he’s forgoing his gubernatorial candidacy and instead running for reelection as Lt. Gov. That would give Guillery a graceful exit from the Lt. Gov. race under an agreement with Vitter and Jindal that he is to be appointed to the U.S. Senate after Vitter is elected governor (with Vitter resigning in December and Jindal making the appointment, so that Vitter can claim that he did not appoint his successor, much less appoint someone as part of a deal). But if Dardennes stays in the race and Vitter’s election isn’t viewed as a slam-dunk, then Guillery likely will continue running for Lt. Gov. and forego the chance to become a U.S. senator in the near future, if ever (he is 70, after all).
So who would that leave for Vitter or Jindal to appoint? Probably the next best choice would be Congressman Steve Scalise of the LA-01 (in the New Orleans suburbs: the most conservative and Republican CD in the state, if not the country), a conservative’s conservative that plays well with others (and is popular enough among House Republicans that he was elected to the leadershhip despite his relative lack of seniority. Scalise is 49 years old, so he could serve in the Senate for a long, long time if he si wished, and he’s Catholic (as is Vitter, and Guillery for that matter), which would give the state’s U.S. Senate delegation balance (Cassidy is a Protestant, and the last time LA didn’t have at least one Catholic in tbe U.S. Senate was over a quarter century ago). I think that Scalise would be a far better choice than Congressman John Fleming of LA-06 (Shreveport and surrounding areas), since Fleming (i) is not the conservative superstar that Scalise is, (ii) already is 63 years old, (iii) is a Protestant, and (iv) represents the least Republican, and most heavily black, GOP-held congressional district in LA, which could give the Democrats a shot in a special election to reace him (Fleming barely won the district when it opened up in 2008, and it wasn’t shored up in 2011 redistricting).
And that’s my two cents on how to fill the vacant Senate seat when Vitter resigns to become governor.
You and me both. His resume sounds like a long disjointed list of ticket punches, rather than the record of substantial achievement a presidential contender ought to have. If only Romney were a conservative. If only Palin had Romney's resume.
The interesting thing to me is who the Democrats have.
Mitch Landrieu? Anyone else?
Other than Mitch Landrieu, I can’t think of anyone who wouldn’t get blown out in 2015 against Vitter. Maybe Melancon?
Ah yea. Melancon is the only state Den with any juice.
To think, a decade ago there was one state republican and dems as far as the eye could see.
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