[palmer]

The 2008 crash in oil came from falling demand in a crashing economy but really from the popping of the Fed-created commodities bubble. Granted those were real world investors speculating on those commodities, not the Fed and not the big banks with Fed money. But the Fed was the driving force behind the commodities bubble and the price crash.

Next the meager recovery that followed was partly from the lower energy prices and some artificial demand from the porkulus (e.g. larger amounts of road construction). But the recovery was and continues to be stymied by the Fed's undermining of long term confidence in the dollar, short squeezes aside. Investors cannot make 10 year dollar investments in new projects thanks to the Fed's artificial lowering of rates in those time frames means that energy demand remains weak and thanks to the separate boom in fracking, prices continue to fall.

I just don't see long term investments taking off until the Fed ends their insane easing policies. There can still be some investment in the mean time and my driving index (number of cars I personally observe on the highways) is rising. So I think there will be some support in energy prices but I would not take it as economic strength.

[expat_panama]

don't see long term investments taking off until the Fed ends their insane easing policies

Don't know which policies you're talking about, they stopped buying mortgages and T-bills long ago.