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I don't much care whether JB runs or not. Without an Obama type surprise (i.e. coming out of somewhere totally unexpected) in the Republican Party the nominee will be Jeb Bush or Mitt Romney. I suspect Romney will not run if Bush is running so as not to dilute the effort. If both of them get incapacitated and can't run it will be Christie. The process will look just like it has looked the last two cycles. Many good men will contend, none of whom have lined up sufficient money to run the whole race. They will cut each others' throats through the first primaries, aided by the Bushney money that will be used to slice up whoever is ahead while Bushney doesn't actually compete until the later primaries where he is then the last man standing.

The one useful possibility is that Christie will run even if Bushney is in it and will use the same strategy of lying low in the earlies, then Bushney and Christie go at each others throats.

If the conservative candidates could all take a lesson from the Reagan run and refrain from attacking each other perhaps the outcome would be more favorable. I am not optimistic on that score either. Bush has already tied up most of the available money and will use it in a storm of attack ads against whoever stands taller among the crowd of conservatives.

At this point I see no future for conservatives in the Washington Party. The Republican iteration of that party is realy the Bush Family Party now, anyway. Perhaps God will choose a different outcome, but I believe we have to truly hit bottom before that might happen.