That's barely a 5% increase --underachieving.
Personally, I'm preparing for a possible leap to as much as 22500 --while I'm also keeping a hand ready on the ejection seat lever. For example, right now we're techncially in an 'up-trend' --not correction-- but there's been so much instituional selling that we've got to see that the up-trend is under downward pressure.
Would be nice, but I’d bet ya $100 the Dow will not close 2015 over 22k.
5% is probably a pretty decent pick. I think oil induced geopolitical events will make things dicey during the year. Players like Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and others aren’t going to idly sit while they go bankrupt. In fact I will go with about an 18K for the DOW come 12/31/2015, with a caveat of a 10 -20% decrease if we see major currency disruptions