Commodity Prices Are Cliff-Diving Due To The Fracturing Monetary Supernova—The Case Of Iron Ore

davidstockmanscontracorner.com ^ | 12-30-2014 | David Stockman

[Riflema]

Crude oil is not the only commodity that is crashing. Iron ore is on a similar trajectory and for a common reason. Namely, the two-decade-long economic boom fueled by the money printing rampage of the world’s central banks is beginning to cool rapidly.

(snip)

Nowhere is this more evident than in China’s vastly overbuilt steel industry, where capacity has soared from about 100 million tons in 1995 to upwards of 1.2 billion tons today. Again, this 12X growth in less than two decades is not just red capitalism getting rambunctious; its actually an economically cancerous deformation that will eventually dislocate the entire global economy. Stated differently, the 1 billion ton growth of China’s steel industry since 1995 represents 2X the entire capacity of the global steel industry at the time; 7X the size of Japan’s then world champion steel industry; and 10X the then size of the US industry.

(snip)

In short, when the credit and building frenzy stops, China will be drowning in excess steel capacity and will try to export its way out— flooding the world with cheap steel. A trade crisis will soon ensue, and we will shortly have the kind of globalized import quota system that was imposed on Japan in the early 1980s.

[Riflema]

Very interesting (long) piece from Stockman explaining how money printing around the world has gone into more than just stock markets. All kinds of players have overbuilt capacity in iron, steel, oil, etc. In the case of China massively so.

Which begs a question: What are the Chinese to do with all that excess capacity in steel, transportation, buildings. All these excesses would be handy in wartime, no? Remember how US industrial capacity prevailed in WWII?

[allendale]

An economy that is built on borrowed and printed money will inevitably collapse. The Chinese sit on the granddaddy of all real estate bubbles. They have squandered immense amounts of capital into non productive and useless projects. The foundation of the US economy is almost non existent.

[Paladin2]

Finally, The Great Leap Forward.....

[bert]

-——All these excesses——

It’s really quite simple...... if you build it, they will come

the number of “they” is so large it is really incomprehensible

Then there are Houston and Dallas........ they absorbed the great excesses of the 80’s and are still growing

[central_va]

Fiat money - depression - world war. Lather, rinse, repeat.

[central_va]

A trade crisis will soon ensue, and we will shortly have the kind of globalized import quota system that was imposed on Japan in the early 1980s.

I doubt it. Free traitors have convinced us that tariffs are a bad thing. I wonder what Jefferson, Washington and Madison would think about today's' economic "crisis"?.

[BlackAdderess]

I was thinking the same thing, there is also the issue of all the extra boys due to the one child policy.

[bert]

troll alert!

[dennisw]

How are ag commodities doing?? We all know hamburger meat is up!!

I saw a huge jump in egg prices last week
Bacon (aka pork bellies) is up at the retail stores for the past year

[dennisw]

Free traitors also usually like free immigration AKA open borders. For these one worlder clowns the USA is just a huge economic zone, not a nation with a Constitution and a history of freedom

[central_va]

Because of the weakening dollar the USA is exporting more meat than ever. Ain't gloBULLism fun?

Link here

PDf file: http://www.usmef.org/downloads/Beef-2004-to-2013.pdf

[dennisw]

Ag commodities index was 714 on May 14th 2014
Today its at 555

http://us.spindices.com/indices/commodities/sp-gsci-agriculture

[central_va]

Free traitors also usually like free immigration AKA open borders.

Not only that if push comes to shove they(free traitors) will defend the current income tax system over any other type of taxation like tariffs and sales taxes.

[dennisw]

Good book for you>>>>>>

The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System
Book by James G. Rickards

[Rodamala]

I made a decent return on my money in the Pilbarra boom on Fortesque... but this chart in that piece stood out for me...

Now, someone 'splain why WE are in the middle east? Don't gimme his horseshit about "stopping terrorism before it gets here" when the Uniparty Regime in place, sending American troops into harm's way REFUSES to control our effing borders. Let China go secure the Middle East... They have probably hundreds of millions people available at any time that can be deployed to secure their energy needs.

Mayhe we should just sell more nukes to Israel and let them turn sand into glass where they see fit to do so?

[dennisw]

Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism
http://www.amazon.com/Bad-Samaritans-Secret-History-Capitalism/dp/1596915986

Written by a Korean-American! Not by a stupid white boy free traitor who learned stupid s____ in college from his stupid economics profs

[Diana in Wisconsin]

While I HATE to use NPR as a source - California has bit off their beak to spite their faces when it comes to egg production.

This could serve as a valuable lesson in supply and demand, but it IS California, so that’s not gonna happen, LOL!

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2014/12/29/373802858/how-californias-new-rules-are-scrambling-the-egg-industry

[central_va]

I really have a keen understanding of the economic situation "free" trade has gotten us in. Capitalism without patriotism and morals is a recipe for disaster. They don't teach the later in B-school. The dogma is all govt's and systems are equal.

Economics does not operate in a political vacuum.

[dennisw]

I am reading your link!

Specifically-—
Dozen eggs was $1.59 two weeks ago and that was a slow rise from previously
Yesterday was at $2.19

[dennisw]

Economics does not operate in a political vacuum.

And high IQ NE Asians (Japan China Taiwan Korea) play the game this way. They are not free traders. They are mercantilists who laugh at Anglo-sphere delusions about free trade and exploit them to win! Only chumps and brain washed college students believe free trade doctrines