Initial voting results in 2012 indicated a decrease in votes, but later those numbers were revised up. I’m not sure what extra votes were added later, maybe overseas military ballots, maybe other absentee ballots & such. Rush might be still quoting the initial results. His overall point that the candidate has to get out the base is still correct.
From my own anecdotal experience, I believe many potential Romney voters in key states stayed home, but I don’t know the exact numbers. I always expected some expert to do a full analysis and announce the reasons but the narrative quickly switched to “we have to reach out to Hispanic voters.”
Also, analysis showed that in 2012, Romney won the so-called “independent” vote. Those precious “moderates” and independents that the are considered by the consultants to be the key to winning the election — Romney won them but still lost the election.
That’s the way I look at it, how did it effect the swing-states such as Ohio and other states like that.
Right after the 2012 election, he jumped on the “white voters stayed home” theme.
4.3 million white voters actually did stay home in 2012, but they were not Republican voters.
Romney got 1.4 million more white votes than McCain.
Obama lost 5.5 million white voters in 2012.
What goes unnoticed about 2012 is that Obama set turnout records for Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters.
By the way, I'm the “expert” who crunched the numbers.
Took me about an hour using 7th grade math.
I used the Congressional certified vote totals (available on Wiki), NEP exit polls (used by AP, NYT, and all major TV networks), and the US Census Bureau.