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“My guess is that SCOTUS will rule that excluding people who buy from the federal exchange from getting subsidies violates the equal protection clause of the 14th amendment.” ******************************************************************************************************
You do realize that there exist NUMEROUS federal statutes that provide subsidies and benefits to a state’s residents IF the state takes certain action - and precludes those benefits if the state does NOT take the specified action. These statutes and rules have existed for decades without equal protection being effectively raised as an issue.
The incentives in the Affordable Care Act to “incentivize” the states to set up their own exchanges are just one more of this type of statute.
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This sounds correct to me. What say you?
“...This sounds correct to me. What say you?”
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It not only sounds correct, it IS correct. There is a similar incentive “trap” going on now related to Medicaid. Some states have fallen into the trap and others haven’t. Specifically it the state agrees to expand its Medicaid eligibility to certain new categories of individuals, the feds will cover a large (90%?) of the costs for several years after which the fed cost coverage will phase out but the state would be required to continue the coverage with its own funds. Many states have not fallen into this honey trap and thus their citizens in the new categories can NOT get Medicaid in their state whereas residents of the states that HAVE fallen into the honey trap CAN get Medicaid. Depending upon which state you reside in you may or may not be eligible for Medicaid. THERE IS NO “EQUAL PROTECTION” ISSUE WITH THIS DISPARITY IN TREATMENT. All individuals in the “new categories” can get Medicaid IF, AND ONLY IF, they decide to reside in a CONFORMING STATE. Those states are, of course, merely accelerating their rush into insolvency.
AND THE SAME PRINCIPLE APPLIES TO OBAMACARE SUBSIDY ELIGIBILITY (AND OBAMACARE PENALTIES) - THEY DEPEND UPON WHETHER THE GIVEN STATE HAS ESTABLISHED A STATE EXCHANGE.