When the Russians invaded Afghanistan the Afghanis ran circles around them. It was only over-whelming fire power that saved the Russkies from defeat.
With respect, I don’t think there is much of a comparison. At the time, the USSR was a massively equipped but morale-based vacuum. My understanding (which could be wrong) was that the Russkies were mostly conscripts who hadn’t the slightest interest in Afghanistan anything. Secondly, the Afghans were fighting for their own country and willing to take massive casualties. (I have no idea the relative casualty numbers, I have heard the Russians suffered 15K dead) Now it is true that perhaps the comparison can be made that the Ukrainians would be fighting for their country but the Russians think that way about the Ukraine almost as much as the Ukrs. Thirdly, the Russian forces WILL HAVE that massively superior firepower should they need it. Which is why I don’t think that and foreign-fueled escalation will lead anywhere but to a wider and more bloody war. My opinion is that Putin is in no mood to suffer anything resembling a defeat in Ukr. Let me be clear, it is a complete piece of crap situation IMO but I frankly see no way foreign forces are going to achieve anything there other than a massive episode of bloodshed.
The West made a serious mistake when the USSR imploded. It welcomed membership of former bloc nations into NATO and that on the surface was possibly a good thing from the democracy standpoint, but it rubbed the Russian noses in their own poop and strategically placed potential adversaries on and up to Russias’ borders; something they have the historical right to be very sensitive to. The West took this a bridge too far when they clumsily intervened in the Ukraine.
I just don’t see this turning out well. The part of Ukraine which wants to unite with Russia which as I understand it is the industrialized East, their infrastructure is just going to be destroyed in this internecine fighting. The agricultural 18th century western part of Ukraine probably mostly wants to merge with Europe, so yet another backwards country can be loaded onto the Eurozone and its potential recovery. But not before thousands of people and plenty of industrial capability will be destroyed. It’s a crappy situation.