I am preparing the popcorn now. About those Mongols, they did devastating damage to Iran/Persia. Massive killing of populations and destruction of cities. See this very detailed article which not only details the devastating killing and destruction but shows how many of our current problems in the region were first set in motion. Incidentally, I note that ISIL/Daesh seems to be following the Mongol model of conquering a city then killing all but the women and children who then are enslaved.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_invasion_of_Khwarezmia_and_Eastern_Iran
Regarding Iran’s future when Kamenei dies, here is a link regarding the formal power structure:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/tehran/inside/govt.html
Several years ago I read an interesting report on what were considered the 4 main power centers in Iran. I will try to reproduce what I remember and thoughts as to what they might do in the future.
1) The Mullah’s, with Kamenei as head. He was reported to have about 10,000 “palace guard” and related direct dependents receiving subsidies, and in some cases nice free housing. Is there a major Mullah to fill his vacuum or will this bunch be a pawn in resulting power struggles?
2) The Revolutionary Guards military which is distinct from the regular Army, I believe it includes what is known as the Quds forces. I believe they have significant economic influence through favorable contracts. I believe President “nut job” came from that faction. They are linked with much of the external Iranian influences like Hezbollah in Lebanon. There is a skilled general currently directing some Iranian (Quds?) forces in the multi-group attempt to retake Kirkuk from ISIL/Daesh. What role in post Kamenei might he have??
3) The old guard political factions of which Rafsanjani and Katami are members. However, probably fading in influence as we must consider the growing size of the
4) Youth sector. This is the great unknown. They know the potential of their elders for cruel repression, they are generally favorable to the west and women’s rights, and they are tired of living under Sharia.
NOTE: “I believe” means I am relying on my 76 year old memory. Do your own Googling for more/correct info.
Mongols certainly did a number on the Persians. They were also the last invaders to conquer Baghdad - until the Americans in 2003.
Here are my thoughts on the 4 power bases you mentioned for determining the next leader in Iran.
1. The Mullahs. The current system is based on religious authority, so based on that, selecting the next supreme leader should be like selecting a Pope. But Khamenei, and Khomeni before him were really religious shams - politicians first (brutal dictators), with inflated religious credentials to serve their political ambitions. So being the best best Mullah or the Grandest Ayatollah is only helpful for the sake of apperarances - it is really brass-knuckle politics over the money. The Mullahs, mostly the Supreme Leader, administer the county’s Bonyads - tax exempt religious charities that are tools for cronyism/corruption, and dominate huge chunks of the non-oil economy. Major cash cows.
2. The Revolutionary Guards, called Pasdaran (Guards), or Sepah (Corps, or Army) as you pointed out, is separate from the regular military. They protect the Islamic political system against any potential coup, and work to spread it worldwide. They are now the third biggest force in the Iranian economy, after the state oil company and the religious “charities”. They control the domestic Basij militias who crack demonstrators heads for the regime, like bussed in union goons, riot police or brownshirts do elsewhere. They also control the Quds Force that commands their foreign militias, like the ones assaulting Tikrit. Gen Sulemanei leading that operation is actually a one star general in the Revolutionary Guards, which is commanded by a two star (Mohammad Ali Jafari).
Former President Ahmindeedanutjob, was a lifelong member of the Guards, and their power and influence grew rapidly during his administration. They are a serious power center/potential kingmaker.
3. Old Guard politicians - big name prominent families, former leaders and movement leaders. They are potential candidates if they can rally support. It is hard to say from the outside who might have the luck and talent to rise. I believe that it may have been Rafsanjani who proposed having a council rather than a single supreme leader after this one. Something like that might be adopted if there is enough of a standoff that no one can seize power directly.
4. The People. Iranians are the most pro-American population in the Middle East, except Israel. They chafe under this dictatorship and would love a change - they shouted it from the rooftops in the Green Revolution of 2009 after the Mullahs stole what was already a heavily rigged election, but were sold out by the French and Americans - followed by an oppressive wave of executions, incarcerations, torture and rape.
I would add that the regular military is always a potential source for a coup or coup support. They get policed heavily by the regime, but some have bucked or been purged before.