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To: C19fan
Josh Landis, who's quoted in this article, wrote a prophetic article about Syria back in 2005. Bush set in motion Syria's slow-motion collapse way back then:

Nonetheless, Washington seems to be pursuing a policy of regime change on the cheap in Syria. The United States has halved Syria's economic growth by stopping Iraqi oil exports through Syria's pipeline, imposing strict economic sanctions and blocking European trade agreements. Regular reports that the United States is considering bombing Syria, and freezing transactions by the central bank have driven investors away. Next week, United Nations investigators will begin interviewing top officials in Damascus about the bombing death of the anti-Syrian politician Rafik Hariri in Lebanon, a matter that many expect the United States will bring before the Security Council. Politicians and businessmen alike here are convinced that Washington wants to bring down the regime, not merely change its behavior.

Nonetheless, the two countries have much to talk about: both are trying to solve their Iraq problems. They share a common interest in subduing jihadism and helping Iraq build stability. But instead of helping Syria help the United States, Washington prefers to make demands. The Bush administration believes it will be an easy matter for Mr. Assad to crack down on the Syrian Sunnis, who are giving comfort and assistance to mostly Arab fighters traveling though Syria.

On the contrary, it would be extremely costly for Mr. Assad. Sunni Arabs make up 65 percent of the population and keeping them content is crucial for any Syrian leader.

Syria has already taken the easy steps. It has built a large sand wall and placed thousands of extra troops along its 350-mile border with Iraq. Foreign diplomats here dismiss the American claims that the Syrian government is helping jihadists infiltrate Iraq. All the same, Syria has not undertaken the more painful internal measures required to stop jihadists before they get to the border, nor has it openly backed America's occupation of Iraq.

Nor is Mr. Assad - who inherited his job from his father, Hafez, in 2000 - willing to make a wholesale change in his authoritarian policies. But he has worked hard to repair sectarian relations in Syria. He has freed most political prisoners. He has tolerated a much greater level of criticism than his father did. The religious tolerance enforced by the government has made Syria one of the safest countries in the region. Washington is asking Mr. Assad to jeopardize this domestic peace.

Worse, if Mr. Assad's government collapsed, chances are the ethnic turmoil that would result would bring to power militant Sunnis who would actively aid the jihadists in Iraq. Mr. Assad is a member of the Alawite minority, a Shiite offshoot that fought a bloody battle against Sunni extremists in the 1980's. For Mr. Assad to help the United States, he must have sufficient backing from Washington to put greater restrictions and pressure on the Sunni majority. It would be suicide for him to provoke Sunnis and extremists while Washington seeks his downfall.


8 posted on 04/07/2015 2:22:33 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Zhang Fei
While the article has merit, I do believe the Assad administration cracked down on their protesters too severely when the Arab spring came about, not that I supported the Arab spring or the US's Administration's reaction to the protesters in Cairo.

Here is some more curious reading. I confess I do not understand the situation well.

I lived in Syria for over a year and have many very close friends there. Officially there are very few Christians there but actually Christians might be as high as 35%. When in Syria I saw that the people were forcibly keep under control by the army. On every corner of the city of Damascus, where I lived, was at least one army guard watching the people. Thirty years ago the then dictator, Hafez al-Assad, tried to kill all the Christians and Jews, but realized that they were the economic foundation of Syria and it was not in his best interest.

However even when I was there, the Christians were a second class race of people. I had a full time driver who taught me a great deal. They have a jail that is at least 15 floors deep in the ground with a bear at the bottom. Any people causing disruption in the prison are fed to the bear. That prison and the Palestinian camps cannot be photographed or even looked at.

Finally the unarmed people had enough of this violent Dictator and rose up in mass against him more than a year ago. I am so proud of these people. In spite of having no protection and being slaughtered day after day, for over a year now they have daily gone back into the streets to demonstrate for freedom. Such brave people I have never seen in my life.

Unity Publishing , so Rick who has run this website for many years really doesn't have any special interests and writes about Syria largely as an observer, common-man type.

15 posted on 04/07/2015 10:58:07 PM PDT by BeadCounter
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