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To: babble-on

With this lot I am in no way confident that their adjustments will net to zero even if that is the prescribed method.

Moreover, if reality also nets to zero there is no need to inflate/deflate the unreality. Statistics are measurements, not geometric figures or electrical signals therefore ‘smoothing’ is gratuitous.

Observers seeking truth from a government scoring its own performance are on a hiding to nothing. It’s akin to giving Bill Belichick the scoreboard controls at a game and telling him ‘keep it close to make it more believable.’


16 posted on 04/09/2015 7:39:02 AM PDT by relictele (Principiis obsta & Finem respice - Resist The Beginnings & Consider The Ends)
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To: relictele

The reason why the smoothing is useful is that without it the public would form the mistaken impression every December that the economy is suddenly booming, only to be horribly disappointed every January. Or when students in June start their summer jobs there would be euphoria at all the hiring and then depression in September when hundreds of thousands suddenly left the labor force.

If they didn’t use seasonal adjustments when they report the data, you would need to apply your own just to discount the obvious cycles that occur every single year. It makes sense, and they also report the unadjusted number too, if you prefer that one. But one thing it’s not is a conspiracy.


17 posted on 04/09/2015 7:45:25 AM PDT by babble-on
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