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"It’s conventional wisdom that the 2016 Republican presidential race is at such an early stage that the polls don’t matter. They’re just a measurement of name recognition at this point, some observers say, and the only people really paying attention to the campaign are reporters and hard-core party activists.

Maybe that was true in earlier years. But it doesn’t seem to be the case now. “One thing about this election — Republicans are paying attention,” says a GOP pollster not affiliated with any campaign. “They are very concerned about who the nominee is going to be, and the idea that what a candidate says now doesn’t matter could not be further from the truth.”

Look at the recent CNN/ORC poll. First of all, it’s a huge field, and no candidate dominates — Jeb Bush is in the lead with just 17 percent. But nearly all the respondents surveyed have picked a candidate to support; add together every candidate’s little share of the vote and the total nears 100 percent, with few undecided.......

This year’s field seems much more stable at an earlier time. Yes, Kasich might enter the race — he certainly sounded that way recently in New Hampshire — and yes, perhaps another candidate will give it a try, too. But the basic structure of the Republican field seems nearly set.

And strong, too. Back in 2011 and 2012, it was common to hear Republicans complain about the weakness of their field. Some complain today — some always do — but the fact is the 2016 GOP field is a pretty impressive group. Governors with solid records, senators who have made their mark in the Senate, plus intriguing figures who come from outside the world of politics.

Not all of them will make it even to the Iowa caucuses. And they’ll drop off like flies after that. The key thing for the winning candidate is to realize that he will have to be able to assemble a coalition of those voters who support other candidates in the current 14-candidate field. That’s what it will take to win....."