And that made him think Hispanic voters could be taken over by the GOP?Darn right, we're optimistic in Texas we can get more votes of conservative Hispanics!
The 2012 data you cited (35%) came from telephone interviews in Texas and not exit polls. Evidently, no exit polling data was collected that year in Texas according to the article at the link you provided.
More instructive from the recent 2014 election in Texas, NBC exit polling shows real hope for progress among Hispanic voters. Dan Patrick was the Republican winner for Lt. Governor who was most vocal about border security and removing benefits to illegal aliens. Note that he received 53% of male Hispanic votes in the exit polls.
Another surprise is this: Patrick did better than fellow Republican and governor-elect Greg Abbott in all Latino categories, compared to NBC exit polling in the governor’s race. Details:– All Latino voters: Patrick 46, Abbott 44
– Latino men: Patrick 53, Abbott 49
– Latino women: Patrick 40, Abbott 39
Source from The Dallas Morning News: My biggest Texas election surprise: Patrick thumped Van de Putte among Hispanic men
I agree there is a very wide spread (more than 10%) in the polling on Cruz in 2012.
And, I should have pointed out that the Latino Decisions poll was not an exit poll.
However, Latino Decisions polling is the third best source in the country for Hispanic voting.
Only the Census Bureau and the Pew Hispanic Center collect better data, so the 35% Cruz number should not be ignored.
The 2014 election is more instructive, but not for the reasons you state.
Nationally, in 2014, Hispanics had the lowest voter turnout of any ethnic group.
Low voter turnout, for all ethnic groups including whites, almost always means better results for Conservatives.
In 2010, in New Mexico, Republican Governor Susana Martinez, a former Democrat who has Mexican ancestry, got just 39% of the Hispanic vote.
If she had run in 2008 or 2012, when Hispanic turnout was dramatically higher, she probably would have lost.