Posted on 05/13/2015 4:02:22 PM PDT by OttawaFreeper
Nobel Laureate in Chemistry says balls behaved as per Ideal Gas Law, weren’t deflated:
http://wellsreportcontext.com/mackinnons-scientific-conclusion/
Roderick MacKinnon is a professer at The Rockefeller University. In 2003 he was awarded the Nobel Prize in chemistry. His other awards include the 2003 Louisa Gross Horwitz Prize, the 2001 Gairdner Foundation International Award, the 2001 Perl-UNC Neuroscience Prize, the 2000 Lewis S. Rosenstiel Award for Distinguished Work in Basic Medical Science and the 1999 Albert Lasker Basic Medical Research Award.
Professor MacKinnon has no business or personal relationship with the Patriots. When news of the investigation became public, he offered his scientific expertise to the team.
The Wells report concluded “within the range of likely game conditions and circumstances studied, they could identify no set of credible environmental or physical factors that completely accounts for the Patriots halftime measurements or for the additional loss in air pressure exhibited by the Patriots game balls, as compared to the loss in air pressure exhibited by the Colts game balls”. I do not agree with this conclusion. Let me explain why.
The major uncertainty in the Wells Report scientific analysis lies in the pregame measurement of ball pressures: there were two gauges that differ by approximately 0.4 psi, it is not certain which was used in the pregame measurement, and the data were not recorded. If the pregame measurement of Patriots balls was made with the gauge that gives the higher number (high gauge) – as was the Official’s best recollection – then when you compare the Patriots ball pressures at halftime using the same gauge, you observe that the average Patriots ball pressure drop (1.0 psi) falls precisely in the range predicted by the Ideal Gas Law (1.0 to 1.2 psi) for the temperature differences the balls were thought to experience on game day. In more detail, 8 out of 11 Patriots balls fall within that predicted range, and the three with a larger drop (by 0.1, 0.3 and 0.4 psi) can be explained by measurement error (see below). Further, if the pregame measurements for Colts balls were made with the other (low) gauge then the Colts balls dropped 0.7 psi (only 4 Colts balls were measured at halftime). The smaller drop by 0.3 psi of the Colts balls can have a scientific explanation – they were measured at halftime after the 11 Patriots balls and thus had more time to warm up and increase pressure. Is it possible that the same Official could use one gauge for the Patriots and the other for the Colts measurements? Not only is this possible but it is exactly what happened at halftime. The Wells Report describes a detailed procedure in which each Official used one gauge to measure pressures of 11 Patriots balls first then 4 Colts balls. Only on subsequent data analysis did it become evident that the gauges were inadvertently switched in between measuring the team balls. It is very easy to understand how this could happen because the gauges look almost identical. This could also have occurred for the pregame measurements because the Official who made those measurements owned both gauges and brought them to the stadium. Imagine the Official has a bunch of balls from each of two teams that he has to measure and two gauges that are almost identical, so much so that they were interchanged during the rigid protocol of recording described for halftime.
Why then did the Wells Report state that “Most of the individual Patriots measurements recorded at halftime, however, were lower than the range predicted by the Ideal Gas Law”? This statement assumes that the pregame measurements on Patriots balls were made with the low gauge. Why was this assumption made? The main argument as best I can follow goes like this. Science consultants for the Wells Report tested a lot of gauges and found that the low gauge was more similar to other gauges. Because the pregame measurements as recollected by the Official agreed with the pressures pre-set by each team with their own gauges, it seemed more likely that the low gauge was used. Here is my concern about that argument. The accuracy and precision of numbers recollected do not match that of data recorded. The recollected (i.e. not recorded) pressures for Patriots pregame measurements is “most of the Patriots footballs measured at 12.5 pounds per square inch-gauge (psig), though there may have been one or two that measured at 12.6 psig.” This means that the Patriots gauge and the Official’s pre-game gauge were right on (and similarly for the Colts gauge). This level of precision and accuracy in recollected numbers seems unlikely if you look at data that were actually recorded in writing. Let me give two examples. First, take the ball intercepted by the Colts. The pressure was measured three times on this same ball and the numbers are 11.35, 11.45 and 11.75 psi. As anyone can see, these values vary quite a bit. Second, the Ideal Gas Law predicts that pressure should systematically increase over time when the balls were brought from the cold field to the warm locker room at halftime, as pointed out in the Wells Report. However, I do not see this systematic change in the sequential measurements of 11 Patriots balls and 4 Colts balls. The pressure in each ball must increase as it warms, but the systematic trend within the data this would produce is apparently obscured by a large measurement error – the kind of measurement error you see in the example of the ball intercepted by the Colts, a case in which the pressure was measured three times. For these reasons I do not think the assumption that the low gauge was used for pregame measurement of Patriots balls is well supported. And as noted, it conflicts with the official’s own best recollection.
In summary I believe the data available on ball pressures can be explained on the basis of physical law, without manipulation. The scientific analysis in the Wells Report was a good attempt to seek the truth, however, it was based on data that are simply insufficient. In experimental science to reach a meaningful conclusion we make measurements multiple times under well-defined physical conditions. This is how we deal with the error or ‘spread’ of measured values. In the pressure measurements physical conditions were not very well-defined and major uncertainties, such as which gauge was used in pre-game measurements, affect conclusions. Finally, the claim of a statistically significant difference in pressure drop between the two team balls regardless of which gauge was used did not account for the fact that the Colts balls were apparently measured at the end of halftime since the officials ran out of time and made only four measurements – in other words, the Colts balls were measured after the Patriots balls and had warmed up more. For the above reasons, the Wells Report conclusion that physical law cannot explain the pressures is incorrect.
Roderick MacKinnon
Professor, Nobel Laureate Chemistry
Physics Phd explains science of deflategate and Issues raised by Well ie Pats balls vs Colts balls, in the interest of full disclosure he is a Patriots fan:
And my expertise (not my fandom) claims that this assertion that the Wells Report makes is the height of absurdity:
According to our scientific consultants, however, the reduction in pressure of the Patriots game balls cannot be explained completely by basic scientific principles, such as the Ideal Gas Law, based on the circumstances and conditions likely to have been present on the day of the AFC Championship Game.
(Your scientific consultants, by the way, think secondhand smoke does not cause cancer. And what happened to partnering with Columbia University’s physics department? Did they not agree to your assumptions?)
It’s absurd because they ultimately make the claim that the reduction in pressure of the Patriots game balls is beyond the reach of the Ideal Gas Law because the reduction had to be the bigger of the two available answers despite the fact that it probably wasn’t. That sentence sounds silly and circular, and that’s because it is. But, it’s what the report says.
You see, as we all know by now, there were two pressure gauges of the same precision but with different accuracy available to the NFL officials during halftime measurements — the so-called “Logo Gauge” and the “Non-Logo Gauge.” The Logo Gauge tended to give results that were about 0.35 psig1 higher than the Non-Logo Gauge. To compare the halftime pressure readings to the pre-game pressure readings, we need to know which gauge Walt Anderson used for the pre-game pressure readings. On page 52 of this infernal report, it says:
Although Anderson’s best recollection is that he used the Logo Gauge, he said that it is certainly possible that he used the Non-Logo Gauge.
They then go on assuming he used the Non-Logo Gauge. Why? Here, again, is the infernal report:
Exponent’s experimental results were aligned with the measurements recorded at halftime, which indicated a consistent gauge-to-gauge differential of 0.3-0.45 psi. Exponent relied upon this information, as well as the fact that during the testing the Non-Logo Gauge never produced a reading higher than the Logo Gauge, to conclude that Walt Anderson most likely used the Non-Logo Gauge to inspect the game balls prior to the game.
In other words, they think Anderson used the Non-Logo Gauge (despite the fact that he actually claims otherwise) only because the Non-Logo Gauge produced lower pressure readings. That the conclusion of the report supports some nefarious deflation plot shouldn’t be surprising when you pick the result that best supports this belief simply because it best supports this belief.
But, what if, what if?, this all started because of NFL officials’ gross misunderstanding of thermodynamics? What if, by the time cooler heads with a high school science education had the time to interpret the halftime pressure readings, there had already been several leaks from the NFL office to the media about the Patriots involvement in a cheating scandal? What if, just to keep themselves from looking bad, the NFL had to hire a scientific consulting firm that admits to producing results that the client wants to hear? What if nothing actually happened to the pressure levels of the Patriots footballs during the AFC Championship Game, but despite this fact, the most draconian punishment in the history of the NFL was handed down nonetheless? If this were true, even a Colts fan would have to admit that’s pretty messed up.
So now, let me get to what the data actually says about the Patriots game balls and make the claim that without even having to appeal to any other wizardy than the fact that it was cold outside and Walt Anderson used the Logo Gauge pre-game (as he thinks he did), the results of the Wells Report support the fact that it is more probable than not that the Patriots game balls weren’t even tampered with in the AFC Championship Game.
Scientific Results
Anderson believes, but did not record, that the Patriots game balls measured 12.5 psig prior to the game. He also believes, but did not record, that he used the Logo Gauge to make these measurements. The former belief is held as gospel truth by the Wells Report. The latter is discarded in favor of the more conspiratorial answer.
It would also have been super useful if he’d recorded the temperature of the room pre-game when the measurements were made. Saying that the footballs measured 12.5 psig pre-game isn’t exactly useful unless I know the temperature at which this measurement was made. I’m going to suppose 74°F for room temperature. Exponent claims all sorts of temperatures, most of which seem reasonable, but they are all guesses because it was not measured.
So, what were the halftime measurements that were compared to the pre-game 12.5 psig at 74°F? Well, it depends on which gauge you ask.
Patriots Ball Number Logo Gauge [psig] Non-Logo Gauge [psig]
1 11.80 11.50
2 11.20 10.85
3 11.50 11.15
4 11.00 10.70
5 11.45 11.10
6 11.95 11.60
7 12.30 11.85
8 11.55 11.10
9 11.35 10.95
10 10.90 10.50
11 11.35 10.90
Raw halftime pressure readings provided by the Wells Report.
If the Logo Gauge was used pre-game, then the Logo Gauge results from halftime should be used as the comparable results. Since the Non-Logo Gauge measures consistently 0.38 psig lower than the Logo Gauge, we can still use the Non-Logo Gauge results to compare to a 12.5 psig pre-game reading by the Logo Gauge provided that we correct them higher by 0.38 psig. To use halftime results from a pressure gauge not used for the pre-game results is as valid as me using the tire gauge in my glove compartment in the same experiment. Why is it even a valid solution that is considered?
Patriots Ball Number Logo Gauge [psig] Non-Logo Gauge (corrected) [psig]
1 11.80 11.88
2 11.20 11.23
3 11.50 11.53
4 11.00 11.08
5 11.45 11.48
6 11.95 11.98
7 12.30 12.23
8 11.55 11.48
9 11.35 11.33
10 10.90 10.88
11 11.35 11.28
Corrected halftime pressure readings, assuming the Logo Gauge was used for pre-game measurements.
Due to the cooling of the air inside the footballs which occurred throughout the first half (I’ll use 48°F for the halftime ball air temperature, which is what Exponent used), we can use the Ideal Gas Law
PV=nRT
to determine how the pressure of the footballs changed. In this equation, P is pressure in psia (add 14.7 psig to the gauge pressure reading), T is temperature in Kelvin (where Kelvin and Fahrenheit are related by TK=59(TF+459.67)), V is the volume of the football, n is the amount of air in the football, and R is a universal constant. In the world where V, n, and R are constant (the football doesn’t expand and air doesn’t leak out, by nefarious means or otherwise), comparing the pre-game readings to the halftime readings is as simple as solving
PpregameTpregame=PhalftimeThalftime
Using this equation with Tpregame = 74°F and Thalftime = 48°F, the halftime measurements of each football can be used to predict what the pre-game pressure value must have been. Before the data was released (and making assumptions about the initial pressure of the Colts balls and the temperatures, which is why the lines are labeled with non-Wells Report numbers — but you get the idea), I made the following chart which shows just exactly how the pressure of a football should vary with temperature.
Football Pressure Changes with Temperature
The pressure response of footballs of various pressures measured at specific temperatures, according to the Ideal Gas Law.
But, now that I can use the actual values given in the Wells Report, I got even more precise with these numbers. The calculations for what follows can be found in this spreadsheet.
Patriots Ball Number Average Halftime Reading (w/ Non-Logo Gauge corrected) [psig] Projected Pre-Game Reading on Logo Gauge [psig]
1 11.84 13.20
2 11.22 12.54
3 11.52 12.86
4 11.04 12.36
5 11.47 12.81
6 11.97 13.33
7 12.27 13.65
8 11.52 12.86
9 11.34 12.67
10 10.89 12.20
11 11.32 12.65
Average 11.49 12.83
Projected pre-game pressure readings on the Logo Gauge, assuming the Logo Gauge was used for pre-game measurements. Half-time ball temperature 48°F. Pre-game ball temperature 74°F.
Why, that data almost suggests that nothing nefarious happened at all! The average halftime measurement was 11.49 psig in Logo Gauge units. This corresponds to a pre-game projected measurement on the Logo Gauge of 12.83 psig. I’m pretty sure that’s greater than 12.5 psig, which is the arbitrary limit the NFL set. In fact, only 2 balls were projected to be lower than 12.5 psig (balls 4 and 10), which can be explained in a bazillion ways other than cheating (and according to Occam’s razor, those other solutions are probably more realistic).
But, in this scenario (with constant halftime temperature of 48°F), the Colts balls would have initially been 14.13 psig. That doesn’t seem right.
So, to be a bit more fair, a simple solution to the heat equation predicts that the temperature of the air within the footballs begins to move towards equilibrium with the indoor temperature in an exponential fashion, eventually asymptotically approaching room temperature. If Exponent is to be believed (and why not!), this process takes place in a period of approximately 15 minutes (according to Figure 14 on page 31 of the Exponent section).
Halftime Temperature/Pressure Ramp over Time
image by Exponent from the Wells Report
Keeping in mind that a total of 13.5 minutes was available to measure each of the 11 Patriots balls and 4 Colts balls and to refill the Patriots balls, I fit each measurement along this curve over time (so each subsequent football is a bit warmer than the last). The Patriots footballs took about 5 minutes to be measured, so they’re about 58°F by the end of measurement. This was an inexact science, but probably pretty darn good, according to the plot above.
Patriots Ball Number Average Halftime Reading (w/ Non-Logo Gauge corrected) [psig] Projected Pre-Game Reading on Logo Gauge [psig]
1 11.84 13.20
2 11.22 12.49
3 11.52 12.75
4 11.04 12.20
5 11.47 12.59
6 11.97 13.06
7 12.27 13.31
8 11.52 12.48
9 11.34 12.25
10 10.89 11.73
11 11.32 12.12
Average 11.49 12.56
Projected pre-game pressure readings on the Logo Gauge, assuming the Logo Gauge was used for pre-game measurements. Half-time ball temperature 48°F and heating towards room temperature, ending at 58°F. Pre-game ball temperature 74°F.
In this case, four balls were under 12.5 psig (balls 4, 9, 10, and 11), but the average was still 12.56 psig, which is still greater than 12.5 psig. Given the number of variables that could be changing, this is completely reasonable to any fair reader of the report.
In this scenario, there are two possibilities for when the Colts balls are measured during halftime (I discuss this at the bottom in the Various Notes of Note section) — either right after the Patriots balls were or at the end of halftime, after refilling the Patriots balls. If they were measured right after the Patriots balls, the Colts balls were on average 13.43 psig originally (conflicting with what Anderson said they were). But, if they were measured at the end of halftime (when their temperature was nearly 70°F), they would have been 13.01 psig. This is exactly what Anderson said they were.
So, a scenario where the Logo Gauge was used by Walt Anderson pre-game, the Patriots halftime measurements were recorded at the beginning of halftime, and the Colts were measured at the end of halftime yields an average initial pressure of 12.56 psig for the Patriots balls and 13.01 psig for the Colts ball. Both are what Anderson measured pregame without tampering having to be invoked.
But, no no no. These results won’t do. So, Anderson must have used the Non-Logo Gauge. Well, fine. Here’s the worst-case scenario, which does look awfully bad. I’d bet that’s why it was chosen as the scenario “more likely than not.”
Patriots Ball Number Average Halftime Reading (w/ Logo Gauge corrected) [psig] Projected Pre-Game Reading on Non-Logo Gauge [psig]
1 11.46 12.80
2 10.84 12.09
3 11.14 12.35
4 10.66 11.80
5 11.09 12.19
6 11.86 12.66
7 11.89 12.92
8 11.14 12.09
9 10.96 11.86
10 10.51 11.34
11 10.94 11.73
Average 11.11 12.17
Projected pre-game pressure readings on the Non-Logo Gauge, assuming the Non-Logo Gauge was used for pre-game measurements. Half-time ball temperature 48°F and heating towards room temperature, ending at 58°F. Pre-game ball temperature 74°F.
Yup. See. Cheatriots. I knew it all along! 8 of the 11 balls were under the allowable limit! The average was only 12.17 psig. Someone let the air out. I’ll bet Tom Brady knew about it.
In this scenario, if the Colts balls were measured immediately after the Patriots balls, they’d have an average of 13.04 psig. This is, I think, why Exponent chose this scenario. I don’t know why they didn’t consider that the Colts balls were measured later in halftime. In that case, they’d have an average of 12.62 psig, which doesn’t match what Anderson originally reported.
Of course, this scenario is only acceptable if you assume Anderson perfectly remembered what the pre-game pressure measurements were, but failed to recall which pressure gauge he used to make these measurements. Why this scenario was chosen seems a bit too obvious and evil, even for Roger Goodell. Why is the bolded one above not more logical?
Finally, just to complete the circle, if the Logo Gauge was the gauge used for the pre-game measurements and we assume the average halftime pressure measurement of 11.5 psig for the Patriots balls, what pre-game and halftime temperatures would the balls have to be in order to produce a pre-game value of 12.5 psig or higher? I produced a heatmap (you can see my work in producing this here) showing the phase space for the pre-game and halftime temperatures that suggest no tampering took place. For instance, if you think the halftime ball temperature was 55°F for a 11.5 psig reading (find 55°F on the x-axis), then the pre-game temperature would have to be about 72°F or higher for the initial pressure to have been 12.5 psig or higher (all the values on the y-axis that are white or red along the vertical about 55°F on the x-axis).
Temperature heatmap showing phase space for legal footballs
Heatmap showing the predicted pre-game measured pressure for an 11.5 psig (at halftime) football, for all pre-game and halftime temperature possibilities. For a given pre-game and halftime temperature, the pre-game football measurement is 12.5 psig or higher if the color is white or red. It’s below 12.5 psig in all phase space that is blue.
Concluding Thoughts
So, here we are. A legendary quarterback and the GOAT accused of cheating and suspended for 4 games (at a personal cost of 2 million dollars and a tarnished legacy). A flagship franchise stripped of 2 draft picks and fined 1 million dollars despite the fact that the Wells Report cleared them of responsibility. Two low-level employees all-but-fired. All because of a report that suggests that air wasn’t even let out of the footballs, unless you choose to find a way to twist the math.
To assign the level of scientific integrity that has been assigned to this study, I’d expect to have the pre-game measurements carefully recorded, along with the room temperature at the time of the recording. I’d also really expect for you to know which gauge you used to make this measurement. All other pressure measurements should only be made with gauges that are calibrated to the original pressure gauge. It’d be nice to know what the atmospheric pressure was at all times too. And the relative humidity. I know Exponent did their best to try to determine what these all probably were, but we don’t know what they actually were at the times in question. For example, the room in which the balls were checked pre-game could have been 70°F normally, but what about if there are a dozen officials in the room? There are just so many factors that could be in play that change all of this, knowing solid numbers for everything that would affect these measurements is extremely important to the science.
None of this recording happened. And we are to assign a level of certainty to this process that passes scientific scrutiny? I’d bet even Bill Nye would agree that this is all a bit absurd.
Charts illustrating science here at the link:
http://drewfustin.com/deflategate/
They got the science wrong the house of cards tumbles.
Can’t wait for the lawsuits against the NFL after the arbitration process.
Wow! What a lot of work.
But I’m really waiting for a full explanation of the “Butterfly Effect” of the slightly softer footballs and how that prevented opponents from sacking the qb, prevented interceptions, tackles and fumbles, and overall befuddlement on par with the Obi Won Kenobi Jedi mind messing.
:>)
LOL :D
Article blowing up the fulble lie resplendent with Charts:
Bottom the Patriots fumbles are low but not even the lowest over the past 3 years as per Footballoutsiders stats.
Your fictional graspingatstraws firstline explanation in post #18 is vaporized in posts #19 & #20...and so...a "cricket" response in post #21 where there's no acknowledgement that it was so far removed from NFL reality.
In looking at the article you linked to, the guy says further down in the article:
The average offense fumbles 16.55 times per season, or just over once per game. Small numbers are statistically finicky in a number of ways. They are heavily distortion-prone, for example.
First of all he's right on the average re: fumbles per season; plus he's right that small numbers are statistically finicky in a # of ways...including being distortion prone.
Yet what does he do to kick off & primarily base his articles on?
ONLY three seasons ... probably just less than fifty fumbles to evaluate!!! (2012-2014)
IoW, he refutes himself!
He sums up: Don't rely on a small #...and then he telescopes the fumbles controversy from a study of 16 yrs to just three!!! He commits the same distortion error he rightly complains about!!!
Patrick Sharps analysis...and my follow up...looked at Pat stats from either 2000-2014...I went back to 1999.
What's that suppose to mean? (That the Pats weren't "good" pre 2007, when they went to the SuperBowl three times in about five years to kick off the new century???)
You know...sometimes...authors just don't think about what they write...in overall context I mean...
When you look at the odds of winning a game the team with the fewest turnovers int or fumbles has the best chance of winning.
Hence the emphasis on not turning the ball over Brady in 2nd to A Rogers in lowest INT % all time.
THe stats are the stats, but being a hater I understand your need to deflect.
BTW do you think the Nobel prizewinner in Chemistry is less credible than Wells hired guns who went from 2nd hand smoke being fine to try ing to twist data towards a preordained conclusion that got blown apart?
Where does that leave YOUR argument, balls weren’t tampered with deal with it. Your team isn’t close to the Pats.
Hating? LOL! Did you spend your winter in the College of Leftists, School of liberalspeak?
Beyond that, let's take that .3 per 100 plays & run with it for a few minutes.
In the team rushing stats I was looking at for an earlier post, the Pats were rushing the ball about 440 times to usually upper 400s and a few times early 500 times per season 2007-2014.
They are well-balanced team...so without taking the time to look @ actual stats...let's double that...let's say they run anywhere between 900 - 1,000 non punt offensive plays were season.
Let's take the higher number: 1,000...So the difference .3 per 100 plays = a grand total of 3 less fumbles that Brady made in 2012-2014 than the average NFL QB.
So you're telling us that THE PRIMARY argument this guy gives accounts for a grand total of just 3 fumbles vs. the rest of the NFL teams per season...and THIS is the "blowing up" argument???
Blown up? Sure...as in this author's windbag...!!!
Yes, Brady did cut in half his fumbles starting 2007 (vs. 2001-2006).
While itself sounding suspicious, I don't try to analyze QB fumbles because some are bad snaps, and QBs hold the ball distinctly than other plays.
That isn’t a liberal word. I’m just not ancient like you.
Accusing those you disagree with of “hating” is as liberal as it gets Junior.
They talk about it directly, read the whole article, moreover they compare the fumble rates for home and away games when the opposing teams handle the balls, guess what no difference.
BTW since the science as per the Nobel Prize winning Chemist, the Pats Fan Physicist and the Head-smart experiments prove no one deflated the footballs.
What it also showed is that the NFL process for certifying the game balls is a joke using $2 pressure gauges that vary by almost.4 psi to a spec of 1 psi max requirement. Just move on You got nothing, can’t wait to get Kensil, Wells Goodell, Colts and Ravens officials into discovery and under oath.
Whatever you say old fart.
Oh dear, the resident liberal ute hating on old farts. Well, as liberal utes are wont to say, haters gonna hate. Truly lol.
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