Posted on 05/15/2015 10:14:51 AM PDT by thackney
Adapting the technology that powered the shale oil boom in Texas to the deserts of Saudi Arabia and elsewhere could produce 141 billion barrels of crude, research firm IHS said Thursday.
Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, alongside other technological breakthroughs in recent years, could pump that much oil out of 170 older, largely unproductive fields around the world, from the Middle East to Latin America to Russia.
In its initial assessment, IHS found 96 percent of the oil that could be recovered from those fields would have to be released using hydraulic fracturing, a process of blasting water, sand and chemicals underground to crack open tough rock formations.
And drilling horizontally would allow oil producers including Saudi Aramco, Russia’s Gazprom and Mexico’s Pemex to tap into thinner bands of rock that conventional, vertical drilling couldn’t reach.
“Horizontal wells allow engineers to connect compartmentalized portions of the reservoir with one well instead of many vertical wells, which addresses cost and footprint considerations,” IHS upstream researcher Leta Smith said in a written statement.
Recent updates to shale-busting techniques in the United States, like up-to-date seismic imaging and tools that collect data while a rig is drilling, would help foreign firms target the best places to fracture a formation and avoid breaking into water zones.
Even pad drilling — a technology that rose to prominence in 2013 of boring multiple wells from a platform — could be useful for unlocking older fields.
But where would these technologies help the most? IHS says Iran, Russia, Mexico and China have the most potential. Nearly 70 billion barrels could be squeezed out of the Middle East, and 25 million out of Latin America.
Together, they make up two thirds of the world’s potential increase in oil output. Most of that would come from onshore plays, IHS said.
The firm’s report comes a few weeks after the IHS CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, when three U.S. oil chief executives explained why there hasn’t been any real push yet to send fracturing and other shale-busting techniques abroad.
The cost to do business in most places outside North America is two or three times higher, Pioneer Natural Resources CEO Scott Sheffield said during the panel discussion, noting many foreign governments don’t allow private owners rights to the minerals under their land, killing any sort of incentive to let an oil company park a rig there.
Hess Corp. CEO John Hess said on the panel that only a few countries have the right geology, the right infrastructure to support thousands of trucks moving rig equipment, and pragmatic tax and regulatory systems to attract U.S. shale companies.
In the IHS report, Smith said Mexico, which is just opening its energy sector to international oil companies after decades of state monopoly, could be ripe for technological investments, and other attractive investments could be in Brazil, the United Kingdom, Norway, Congo and Indonesia.
Unconventional technologies already have made headway in China, Tunisia and France. Engineers used seismic imaging to aim wells in France’s Saint Martin de Bossenay oil field. Productivity there increased up to 44 percent, IHS said.
The only mention of costs I found, when the only question that really matters on this subject is:
AT WHAT COST?!?!?
They’ll probably sign contracts similar to that for mining concessions, since fracking is a lot more similar to mining, cost-wise, than to traditional oil exploration and production.
I don't know if anyone bought it.
You can find someone predicting the bottom at nearly any price from $10 to non-stop climb from here.
I would not expect such a change in contracts. I think it would happen when prices remain high enough to support the expansion.
They seem to be missing the Arckaringa Basin. Massive find, mineral extraction friendly company, existing infrastructure and companies. Water could be a problem, but that seems to be a common issue that is usually overcomeable.
What am I missing?
141 MMM bbls = about 12 years of world supply, no?
I bet there’s a lot more.
I think you are confusing oil in place with technically recoverable amounts of oil with current technology.
For example, in the Bakken Play, recovery rates run in 4~6% range. Meaning 94~96% of the oil remains in the ground after production is complete with current technology.
More existing oil? yes
Recoverable with current technology? probably not
Recoverable with current technology and today’s prices? definitely not
141 MMM bbls = about 12 years of world supply, no?
- - - - - -
No.
141 billion barrels of oil
divided by
93 million barrels per day
equals 1516 days of oil or ~4.2 years.
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm
Now, for the more sobering news...
141 billion barrels equals about 4 years of world consumption
Wow. I was way off. Thanks for the correction. I thought it was about ~33 MM bbl/day.
Good info. Thanks again.
My personal opinion is oil will hit about 80 bucks a barrel and stabilize.
Oil doesn’t affect me that much though, I’m more a natural gas guy up here.
I’d like to see about 80 though, that’s profitable for US and Canada, while not being ridiculous.
Why do business with those that support terrorism.
At least on investment newsletter thinks that Linc Energy, which owns rights to most of the land here, is a potential whale.
That would be about Western Europe plus the US.
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