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6. John Kasich: Give us the right odds and we’d bet a bundle on the Ohio governor. Kasich is itching to run, he’s excellent on the Sunday talk shows, and he’s been a good governor of a crucial state. Kasich is prickly and combative, but since when was that a liability? Kasich’s strongest argument is simple — he’d be a good president.

5. Rand Paul: He’s off to a pretty slow start, isn’t he? Paul, a Kentucky senator, has alienated the GOP establishment with his personal attacks and his dovish geopolitical views. Paul is the most difficult candidate to analyze — do young people really like him? Not as much as they liked his father, in our opinion. Paul could be the first major dropout, or stay in the hunt until May.

4. Ted Cruz: He has raised a ton of money and he means business. Cruz, a Texas senator, could do very well in the early primaries and he’s a fantastic debater. Could he win a general election? It’s difficult to envision Cruz capturing more than 15 states, but the caucus voters in Iowa don’t always care. The conventional wisdom is that he’s already running for 2020, but Cruz is a fiercely disciplined young man in a hurry who can’t be counted out in 2016..

3. Scott Walker: He’s lost some altitude in the past couple of months, and he’s still a work in progress. Plus, Wisconsin has budget problems that will require Gov. Walker to spend more time in Madison. A harsh conclusion is that Walker could be the 2016 version of Tim Pawlenty; but he’s a terrific campaigner, so we subscribe to the view that Walker could win the vice presidential nomination at the very least.