To Robert AndersonNowhere does it say that Anderson WILL be attacked. The letter, incidentally, was never received by Anderson. It was intercepted by the confederates. On the same day, Robert Chew delivered the message to the Governor Pickens that read, "I am directed by the President of the United States to notify you to expect an attempt will be made to supply Fort-Sumpter with provisions only; and that, if such attempt be not resisted, no effort to throw in men, arms, or amunition, will be made, without further notice, or in case of an attack upon the Fort."
[War Department] Washington, April 4, 1861 Sir: Your letter of the 1st. inst. occasions some anxiety to the President.
On the information of Capt. Fox, he had supposed you could hold out till the 15th. inst. without any great inconvenience; and had prepared an expedition to relieve you before that period.
Hoping still that you will be able to sustain yourself till the 11th. or 12th. inst. the expedition will go forward; and, finding your flag flying, will attempt to provision you, and, in case the effort is resisted, will endeavor also to reinforce you.
You will therefore hold out if possible till the arrival of the expedition.
It is not, however, the intention of the President to subject your command to any danger or hardship beyond what, in your judgement, would be usual in military life; and he has entire confidence that you will act as becomes a patriot and a soldier, under all circumstances.
Whenever, if at all, in your judgment, to save yourself and command, a capitulation becomes a necessity, you are authorized to make it. [Respectfully SIMON CAMERON.]
Lincoln had essentially three choices. Surrender the fort, start shooting to force their way in (and then what?) or openly declare that they were going to send supply ships, which would only maintain the status quo. The confederate choices were to either allow the resupply maintaining the status quo, or forcibly oppose it, starting a war.
I'll end with three quotes from the south:
"Mr. President, at this time it is suicide, murder, and will lose us every friend at the North. You will wantonly strike a hornet's nest which extends from mountain to ocean, and legions now quiet will swarm out and sting us to death. It is unnecessary; it puts us in the wrong; it is fatal."-- Robert Toombs, discussing Lincoln's message to Pickens with Jefferson Davis and Davis's orders to attack Sumter
"Unless you sprinkle blood in the faces of the people, Alabama will be back in the Union in ten days"--James Gilchrist to Jefferson Davis
"I will tell you, gentlemen, what will put Virginia into the Southern Confederacy in less than an hour by Shrewsbury clock--STRIKE A BLOW! The very moment that blood is shed, old Virginia ail make common cause with her sister States of the South."--Roger Pryor, to a Charleston audience a few days before the shelling of Sumter.
No it doesn't. As a matter of fact, it does not go nearly so far as my friend had led me to believe, but I didn't know it at the time. He misrepresented quite a lot of what it said, but I couldn't check on it back then. I didn't find that letter until just a few years ago. It is not nearly the smoking gun for a theoretical Lincoln Perfidy that he seemed to believe, and I know of no other letter.
I'll end with three quotes from the south:
Robert Toombs was prophetic. It's a pity Davis heeded the words of others instead of the man who was correct. Much bloodshed might have been prevented.