The Iowa Straw Poll (formerly Ames Straw Poll) is not the same as the Iowa Caucuses.
Romney won the 2007 Ames Straw Poll by a wide margin. Michele Bachmann won the 2011 Ames Straw Poll by a narrow margin over Ron Paul.
The Straw Poll is a fundraiser intended to be more like a Republican state fair.
I predict the Paul pothead will win all straw polls then light up the straw and smoke it.