“which part of this do you disagree with?”
“The map of 1860 shows us those areas as being Charles, Prince George and Montgomery counties, which are today the strongest Liberal Democrat voting counties.”
As I stated, I think your interpretation is flawed. Partly based on your later statement:
“In other words, if more than 20% of white families owned slaves, then the state declared secession and joined the Confederacy.”
OK, what % of slave population is this then as per that map? Because if we examine your maps earlier, which the last gov is actually a pretty good generalization, this is how it stacks up....
(realizing the Dem-onization of Charles Co. is a recent phenomenon, not at all historical, thanks to 301 and extra development spilling over from welfare-PG Co.).
1861 County Slave % 2014 County Election result
Allegany 2.3 Garrett Repub
“ “ Allegany Repub
Washington 4.6 same Repub
Frederick 7 same Repub
Carroll 3.2 same Repub
Baltimore 5.9 same Repub
Baltimore city 1 same Dem
Harford 7.7 same Repub
Cecil 4 same Repub
Montgomery 29.6 same Dem
Howard 21.5 same Repub
Anne Arundel 30.7 same Repub
Prince George’s 53.5 same Dem
Calvert 44.1 same Repub
Charles 58.4 same Dem (recent phenomenon)
St. Mary’s 43 same Repub
Kent 18.9 same Repub
Queen Anne’s 26.2 same Repub
Caroline 6.6 same Repub
Talbot 25.2 same Repub
Dorchester 20.2 same Repub
Somerset 20.4 same Repub
“ “ Wicomico Repub
Worcester 17.7 same Repub
“ “ Wicomico Repub
So if we go by the few counties that constantly go Dem, maybe 29.6% slave is the cut-off (not counting Baltimore city, far from the norm).
But, then, 3 of the 6 counties violate the “Dem trend” rule here - Calvert, St. Mary’s and Anne Arundel, while only 3 fit in officially.
And Queen Anne’s is only about 4% points below 1861 Monty, yet it’s a reliably conservative place.
No, I don’t think it’s a solid premise.
Both your numbers and my maps show that, excepting Baltimore itself, all of today’s Dem counties were very high slave percents in 1860.
When freed slaves began to vote they voted Republican for many years, but since roughly FDR, their descendants have voted overwhelmingly Democrat.
And yes, I agree that some Republican counties today also had high percentage of slaves in 1860.
But most did not, as you can easily see by looking at the northern and western - most counties.
Finally, it’s only reasonable to suppose that Maryland’s Confederate troops came from the highest slave holding counties, while its Union troops came predominantly from counties with much fewer slaves.
Agreed?