[sphinx]

How many conservatives on these threads believe that the Republicans will do the right thing?

I expect the House will pass something, though perhaps not on the first try. This will probably contain some kind of a transitional mechanism which will have to be VERY carefully designed, leading to a clear exit strategy, or it will lead to a conservative revolt. In the Senate, there is a high probability that 51 Republican Senators will be unable to unite around anything at all. About 45 of them will be ready to support something similar to the House plan, but getting to 51 will be difficult.

Then the question is whether the Democrats simply filibuster and defy the GOP to risk a complete collapse of the individual insurance market. This is likely. I wonder if several of the states with Republican governors and legislatures are prepared to step in.

[nathanbedford]

I fear that the only way a repair of Obamacare can be avoided is if the Republican leadership of either the house or the Senate hold fast. This is extremely unlikely especially in the wake of the house leadership combining the Democrats to pass TPP.

Neither McConnell nor Boehner will stand fast. Watch for a giant giveaway.