Posted on 06/30/2015 4:13:09 AM PDT by Eurotwit
An analysis of four recent polls surveying Arab public opinion towards the Islamic State.
An analysis of four polls surveying Arab public opinion towards the Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL) reveals that the group has a bare minimum of 8.5 million strong supporters and that's a conservative estimate. If you include those who feel somewhat positively towards the Islamic State, the number rises to at least 42 million.
The estimate is based on a March 2015 poll by the Iraq-based Independent Institute for Administration and Civil Society Studies; a November 2014 poll by Zogby Research Services; another November 2014 poll by the Doha-based Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies and an October 2014 poll by the Fikra Forum commissioned by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
The following is a breakdown of the support for the Islamic State in 11 Arab countries:
Iraq
The November 2014 poll by the Doha-based Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies found that 2% of Iraqis view the Islamic State positively and another 4% view it positively to some extent. The March 2015 poll found that 5% do not consider the Islamic State to be a terrorist group.
With a population of 32,586,000 according to the CIA World Factbook, that means the Islamic State has between 651,720 and 1,955,160 supporters in Iraq.
Syria
Seventeen percent of Syrians said that they completely support the Islamic State's goals and activities in the March 2015 poll. That statistic grows to 27% when you account for Syrians who do not consider the Islamic State to be a terrorist group.
The November 2014 poll interviewed 900 Syrian refugees in Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey and found that 4% are positive towards the Islamic State and another 9% are somewhat positive. This should raise serious concerns for countries that are accepting refugees from the civil war.
With a population of 17,952,000, that means the Islamic State has between 3,051,840 and 4,847,040 supporters in Syria.
Palestinian Territories
About 4% of Palestinians view the Islamic State positively but a shocking 20% feel the Islamic State is positive to some extent. This is the highest level of positivity towards the Islamic State in the November 2014 poll (which does not include Syria).
The CIA World Factbook says there are 1,816,000 Palestinians in Gaza and 2,731,000 in the West Bank, for a total of 4,547,000. This equates to a range of between 181,800 and 1,091,280 Palestinian supporters of the Islamic State.
Tunisia
The November 2014 poll found that Tunisia has the highest percentage of people who are view the Islamic State positively (7%). Another 6% view it somewhat positively. The finding is substantiated by assessments determining that Tunisia is the biggest source of foreign fighters for the Islamic State.
The country's population of 10,937,000 would include 765,590 people who are unequivocally supportive of the Islamic State; a number that grows to 1,421,810 if you include those who are somewhat positive.
Egypt
The Fikra Forum poll from October 2014 found that 3% of Egyptians view the Islamic State very positively (1%) or fairly positively (2%). The March 2015 poll has 4% of Egyptians viewing the Islamic State positively and another 6% viewing it somewhat positively.
Egypt has an estimated population of 86,895,000. The number of those who view the Islamic State positively ranges from 86,895 to 347,580 depending on which poll has the more accurate number. If you include all of those with some positivity towards ISIS, the range is 260,685 to 8,689,500.
Saudi Arabia
The Fikra Forum concluded that 2% of Saudis are very positive towards the Islamic State and 3% are fairly positive. The March 2015 poll has it at 5% positive and 5% somewhat positive.
Saudi Arabia has an estimated population of 27,346,000. The lowest statistic would mean that there are between 546,920 and 1,367,300 Saudis who are fully positive towards ISIS. If you include those who are somewhat positive, it is between 820,380 and 2,734,600 Saudis who are inclined towards the Islamic State.
United Arab Emirates
The Zogby poll from November 2014 found that 13% of the UAE's population most favors the Islamic State in the Syrian civil war. The country has a population of 5,629,000, translating to 731,770 Islamic State supporters.
Yemen
Approximately 7% of Yemenis say they do not consider the Islamic State to be a terrorist group. The CIA World Factbook estimates Yemen's population to be 26,053,000. This equates to 1,823,710 people.
Jordan
Only 3% of Jordanians view the Islamic State positively and another 6% view it somewhat positively. About 5% say they do not consider the Islamic State to be a terrorist group.
With a population of 7,930,000, this translates to 237,900 supporters on the low end and 713,700 on the high end.
Libya
An estimated 7% of Libyans do not consider the Islamic State to be a terrorist group. The estimated population is 6,244,000, placing the number of Islamic State supporters at 437,080.
Lebanon
The Fikra Forum poll found that support for the Islamic State is nearly non-existent in Lebanon with only 1% of the country's Sunnis seeing the Islamic State as fairly positive. The Doha-based Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies had a similar conclusion.
The CIA World Factbook says that only 54% of the Lebanese population is Muslim. Of that Muslim population, only 27% is Sunni. The result indicates the presence of 8,578 Sunnis in Lebanon who view the Islamic State fairly positively.
In Sum
If we use the most optimistic of the polls for each of the 11 Arab states, we come to an estimate of 8,523,803 supporters of the Islamic State and an average of 5.8% support in the Arab world. If we extend that average to the other 11 Arab countries with a total population of 370 million, you get a result of 21,460,000 strong supporters of the Islamic State in the Arab world overall.
This is in line with the November 2014 poll by the Doha-based Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies. It concluded that 85% of Arabs view the Islamic State negatively and 4% view it positively. The difference of 1.8% can be attributable to the margin of error in the polls and/or slight changes in opinion.
If we include the most pessimistic polls and include those who view the Islamic State somewhat positively, the result is 24,454,228 Arabs who view the Islamic State at least somewhat positively. If the average of 11.5% is consistent across the entire Arab world, then up to 42,550,000 Arabs view the Islamic State at least somewhat positively.
This second number is also in line with the November 2014 survey's conclusion that an additional 7% are somewhat supportive of the Islamic State for a total statistic of 11%.
With a minimum of 8.5 million strong supporters and 24.5 million who view the group at least somewhat positively, the Islamic State has plenty of room for growth in the Arab world.
Then, Syria.
13 percent of Syrian refugees which are now sent all over the western world are POSITIVE to ISIS.
Lastly, 1 in 4 Palestinians are ISIS supporters. Oh, vey.
Bush’s fault
NOT TO WORRY. The border has never been more secure (Harry Reid) and all immigrants, legal or otherwise, are rigorously screened by the federal government.
All 42 million willing to fire AK-47s into public gatherings, strap bombs, kill children, kill women, kill anyone and everything.
The funniest thing was when those two terrorists got gunned down by a SECURITY GUARD at the draw pedo mo contest before they could do squat.
One of its biggest supporters is in the White House.
That’s good. A massive majority of Muslims don’t support Daesh. My solution is to allow their supporters to emigrate to Raqqa.
If true, that seems manageable, because that's not even active ISIS members, but simply sympathizers.
Knowing this, I now feel so much safer...
Numbers are from the Arab world, NOT the entire ummah.
Those numbers are consistent worldwide.
Results from these types of polls are always suspect. As is the extrapolation of the meaning of the results.
“Seventeen percent of Syrians said that they completely support the Islamic State’s goals and activities in the March 2015 poll”
Why is the language changed here from “viewed very positively”, “fairly positively”, etc?
“Goals” for Syrians include getting rid of Assad.
Language and phrasing is very important in polling, especially if you’re comparing the results from one poll to another.
Also, how accurate can the numbers be, when people may be afraid to reveal their true feelings?
I’m not saying that there aren’t plenty of people in the world ready to be recruited into ISIS. I just have serious doubts about these figures and what they actually mean.
ALL MOSLEMS ARE TERRORISTS. It’s really not that hard to understand.
I don’t have that many rifle rounds, but I’m working on it.
Make sure that all your bullets are dipped in pig grease or Silver Bullet Gun Oil.
Indeed!
Can’t be true. The MSM tells us that it’s only a small, radical faction of Islam. /s
Think of it this way. If only 5% of Americans thought it was ok to kill others who don’t agree with them, this would be a huge security problem in our country. It doesn’t take a large percentage of people to totally disrupt a country.
Regardless.. it took only 3 to 5% of America's population ( gays ) to finally turn Marriage upside down through the Supreme Court.
The American Revolution against the British was fought by no more than 30% of the American population.
Neville Chamberlain, many decades ago, erred on the WRONG side of caution.
Let's NOT fool ourselves into believing anything.
Regardless.. it took only 3 to 5% of America's population ( gays ) to finally turn Marriage upside down through the Supreme Court.
The American Revolution against the British was fought by no more than 30% of the American population.
Neville Chamberlain, many decades ago, erred on the WRONG side of caution.
Let's NOT fool ourselves into believing anything.
Is there a bomb or a plague that would kill these 42 million terrorist losers?
"....Not only is Obama popular though, but his popularity transcends the theological divide between the moderates and the extremists and thus provides a focal point of unity for the two groups. It is this "focal point of unity" which has the dangerous potential to inhibit any further attempts to ostracize the extremist elements and as such thwart our efforts at deradicalization. It's one thing to be known as a uniter, it's another when you are uniting the very individuals that we are trying to isolate and ostracize....
To the suitably prejudiced Obama's pledge to "rid the American mind-set of militarism" substantiates the position of the Islamic militants by rekindling the prophecies of Al Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden. That America is a decadent and vile ogre, bloodied with the guilt of imperialism and inescapably tainted by an anti-Islamic history. It is this symbolically violent imagery that Islam's fundamentalist orators will use to radicalize a new contingent of militants from the ranks of Islam's moderates. Individuals who are mesmerized by the phantasmagorical image of one of their own now inhabiting the White House and who will see it as a sign of America's impending submission and our nation's acquiescence to the superiority of Islam."
See more at: http://laotze.blogspot.com/2008/02/islams-battle-for-white-house.html#sthash.DP7bEjSR.dpuf
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