Posted on 07/17/2015 8:34:36 PM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
Russia may be coming to the realization that developing a high-tech weapon system is not the same as fielding it en masse, or even in relatively limited numbers. This appears to be the case for both the T-14 “Armata” tank, the T-50 5th generation fighter, and signs are possibly the PAK-DA next generation bomber.
The T-14 has been Russia’s most celebrated new weapon system as of late. Regardless of its capability (though it’s by no means a “silver bullet” weapon system), in order to be really effective it needs to be fielded in relevant numbers. Originally the idea was to replace the majority of Russia’s front-line stable of ‘legacy’ main battle tanks with the T-14, amounting to about 2,300 in total, with production ramping up in the short term.
Instead of producing thousands of the tanks over next five years or so, some analysts put the number as little as a few hundred. This is partly because the cost of the tank has ballooned to about two and half times what was originally projected. As a result, the Kremlin will likely focus on modernize existing system, such as its T-72 and T-90 tank force.
The same situation is also occurring with the Kremlin’s new stealthy fighter, the Sukhoi T-50. Originally the Russia was aiming at building about 150 T-50s by 2020, then the number was scaled back to just 52 units with the first batch entering operational service in 2016. Now, that number is being drastically scaled back once again to just 12 aircraft, which really equates to an expanded test and operational validation force at best. What’s worse is that as production numbers plummet, unit costs increase. This is what is commonly referred to in Pentagon parlance as a weapons program “Death Spiral.”
India, which has invested partially in the T-50 project (also referred to as the PAK-FA) for its own derivative of the jet, has also been less than enamored with its progress and capabilities. Not to mention that the Indian Air Force just spent billions of dollars on 36 French Rafale fighters with more almost certainly on the way.
Then there’s the fact that there are tensions between the two nations when it comes to maintaining Inida’s existing Su-30MKI fleet. Spare parts availability and engine reliability have also been of major concern when it comes to India Su-35MKIs. This, along with other major recent purchases by India of aircraft made by western aerospace manufacturers, leads many to believe that New Delhi may turn away from Russia for its military aircraft needs.
All this equates to a fighter program that may slow to snail’s pace. As such, it then blurs the lines between a very costly research and development experiment and an actually viable front-line weapon system that Russia can hang its air combat helmet on for the foreseeable future.
Finally, we get to Russia’s next-generation bomber, the PAK-DA. Recent declarations that Russia will be putting the Tu-160 Blackjack back into production may be telling as to the future bomber’s feasibility. The choice to put a Cold War era bomber, one that was highly expensive back then and will be now, while also upgrading their existing force, seems like odd choices for an air arm that supposedly has a cutting edge bomber that will be flying by the end of this decade and coming online operationally around the middle of the next.
Part of this is just a numbers game and part of it is a reality — or lack thereof — game. Russia has been hit by sanctions in a way that is directly affecting their weapons procurement strategy, there is no doubt about it. This was not planned for five years ago or more when many of these programs were being launched.
Still, the valley between what Russia says it can do economically and what it actually can do is so wide that sanctions alone can’t explain the massive slowdown in Russia’s military modernization. It’s clear that Russia is simply unrealistic when it comes to its military technology ambitions.
This is hardly an uncommon phenomenon. The Pentagon has its own woes in this regard as well, although the unraveling of so many key and trumped up programs so fast has not been seen when it comes to the U.S., even in the Department of Defense’s post sequester reality.
With all this in mind, we will probably see just enough T-14s and T-50s to participate in parades, flyovers and to spearhead military exercises, but Russia will most likely continue to fall back on procuring and updating existing conventional weaponry while drastically updating their submarine and land-based nuclear capabilities. This offers a maximum “bottom line” deterrent while also maintaining a usable and affordable conventional force. It also allows Putin and the Kremlin to continue on without losing clout with the Russian people by not having to fully cut leading-edge programs seen as a national source of pride and international competitiveness. And it allows Russia to continue to parade around these programs while actively trying to sell them to anyone with who will buy into them.
This more rationalized approach to weapons procurement is not unlike that of the Cold War. We often forget that even at the height of tensions between East and West, America had to buy the F-16 and F-15 due to budgetary limitations, and that is just one example. A high-low capability mix was a strategy of necessity as much as anything else. The same was true for the USSR to an even greater degree, where numerical advantage was chosen more over a qualitative one.
The policy of procuring an almost all gold-plated, maximum capability at seemingly any cost force is an advent of the post-Cold War military industrial complex. It remains as unrealistic as it was in the Cold War, for both the U.S. and Russia. Russia is now having to come to terms with this reality, while the U.S. is not... yet.
Sure they can!
They’ll just tell Iran that they are in Russia’s debt for this latest scam, and demand some of that $140 BILLION Obama just gifted them.
Yep, considering the Iranians will soon be coming into billions, the Russians have nothing to fear.
Russia is now having to come to terms with this reality, while the U.S. is not... yet.
Probably why the left is doing every thing they can
to infiltrate our government and weaken and destroy
our economy, while saddling
us with ever more entitlement debt.
No one said they were dumb and they plan long term.
Got to wonder if the idiot paper monster that every new program generates is dragging them down as well. We never learned, and maybe they have created their own version to cripple procurement.
True dat!
I’m just not used to the Russians only doing a production run of a “few hundred” tanks. Ever since the T-26 in the 1930s the run was in the tens of thousands.
I hope that’s true.
With the price of the ruble so low Russia actually has a trade surplus with China.
Funny how their designs look strangely familiar. That last jet looks very B1-ish. Yes, very strange.
Russia will have a massive cash influx with the freed up Iranian funds. Thanks Obama
Why is that surprising? Russia exports crude oil and electricity to China. Russian consumers, meanwhile, don't have a lot of money to buy much of anything. Russia's entire economy is based on exports -- mostly oil and gas, but also timber, metals, fish, etc.
The B1 first flew in 1974. Sometime in the last 41 years, the Russians might have gotten a good look at one?
China's economy started out based on exports and look at where they are now? Still a lot of dirt poor people but a large growing middle class and millionaires as well. Maybe the Russians are getting smarter.
That’s what I thought when I saw that nose.
Wasn’t Bob “B-1” Dornan an occasional visitor to these hallowed e-mails? I would ping him and request an opinion if I knew his screen name.
Better to build the Cheaper older platforms in numbers that would swarm the Enemy. It’s what we should be doing instead of wasting Billons on the F-35 that cannot do everything they wanted it to do with a Cost of over $160,000,000 and rising daily per Aircraft. One size fits all doesn’t work.
Our F-22 is great, but we only have 180 or so of them.
For the price of ONE F-35, you can buy FOUR F-15’s. They are even developing the Silent Eagle that has some Stealth Capabilities. In addition, the F-15 is a proven Platform that can only be improved.
If Putin was smart, he would build hundreds of SU-30’s, 33’s and 35’s. They have their problems, but he would be able to overwhelm any Enemy with sheer Numbers.
> Better to build the Cheaper older platforms in numbers that would swarm the Enemy.
Tell you what, you go “swarm” the enemy in the cheap stuff. If I’m going into combat, I want the best. ;-)
WE have the best stuff, but we can’t afford the F-35.
It can’t do the Mission it was supposedly designed to do.
It’s just a Black Hole for Taxpayer Money.
Are you saying the F-15 qualifies as “Cheap Stuff”?
Besides, I was talking about the Article concerning Russia’s Defense Expenditures.
The presumption is that Russia needs this stuff in numbers, but they dont.
They don’t have any real enemies, the kind that attack you to take stuff, except for China and Chechnya. They can only fight China with nukes, and old stuff is otherwise good.
New development is for prestige, foreign sales, and staying relevant until the day they hope to have money.
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