As important as the groups that are fighting are, I think the groups that aren’t even in the discussion could be a factor. I’ve seen almost no union or environmentalist discussions on a number of liberal/D/progressive boards that usually have a lot.
Maybe those groups have picked one of the other groups to side with for this election. Or maybe their discussions are just not visible because of the fighting threads. But for years, both of those groups have posted a lot and been disappointed with the Ds and have felt deprioritized vs. illegal immigrants, gays, social justice advocates, and even each other. Even when issues are discussed there’s infighting with groups (e.g. global warming/solar/wind vs bird lovers or huge subsidies to people like Musk and helping “the rich” buy cars) and not simply hatred for the Rs.
Ds will get the majority votes from those groups but may not get the over-the-top endorsements and money that union and environmental groups have provided in the past and thus lower turnout. A few years ago Trumka even said “maybe it’s time to look at the Rs since D policies are hurting job growth at home (e.g. Obamacare and taxes)”. There’s no way he’d endorse an R president in the generals but an underwhelming endorsement of the D and less money and holding back “union enforcers” from events could be significant.
Trump will carry white, blue collar/union/democrats in every state.