Posted on 07/24/2015 11:46:51 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Donald Trump is making noise about an independent bid for president. If the Republican National Committee doesn’t treat him fairly, Trump says, he’ll be more likely to launch a third-party run. I don’t know if he is at all serious, but I do know two things: History suggests that an independent Trump campaign would crash and fail; polling suggests that even if that happened, Trump could take the Republican candidate down with him.
Trump received 20 percent of the vote in a hypothetical matchup against Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb Bush in a newly released ABC News/Washington Post poll. But, if Trump were to run as an independent, his support would likely fade. Since the first Gallup poll in 1936, there have been five independent or third-party campaigns in which a candidate received at least 5 percent of the vote in early polls. All but George Wallace in 1968 ended up with a lower percentage of the vote than they initially garnered, according to Gallup surveys.
In fact, both Ross Perot in 1992 and George Wallace in 1968 faded more down the stretch than these numbers suggest. Perot polled at an amazingly high 39 percent in summer 1992 (that was before he dropped out and then re-entered the race). Wallace reached the low 20s in late September 1968 and then dropped steadily as Election Day approached.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Hilary also attend Kasich wedding. So this means be-careful who you invite for your wedding I guess.
Nobody is factoring in how well Cruz will do in the debates.
I’ll call it a +10% swing for Cruz PER DEBATE.
I think Bernie goes 3rd party if the Democrats give Hillary the nod.
“Trump cannot be trusted.”
Agreed. Something is afoot.
This is called grasping at straws. Anybody thinking this election will be decided rationally is delusional. America now runs on emotion. We are watching American Idol writ large.
Enjoy the show.
I hope Ted breaks out, but he’s been demonized by the press and has little time to come out.
You might see a Trump/Cruz ticket where Trump serves 4 and Cruz then serves 8.
I think Trump listens and that Cruz would have great effect on Trump should be get through.
Cruz is brilliant and right, but he is not the household name like Trump or Clinton, but that can change.
I would have no issues at all supporting Trump if the Republican party attempts to block him.
In a second.
Trump is a businessman and the political parties play the role of the Mafia in a shake-down racket.
Trump has to contribute to the party that controls the state and city where he wants to build. In the case of NY state and City, that party has a D symbol.
In the case of NY City, the current Mayor (D) has said (a week or so ago) that Trump’s projects will not be approved in the future and that if legally possible any existing contracts will be abrogated. That’s but one example of what happens when you cross the party in power if you are a developer. You play their game or else you can’t operate.
This shakedown isn’t limited to Dems, but it so happens that most major cities are Dem controlled so they are best situated to apply the shakedown.
Ross Perot all over again.
Spoilsport Perot handed Clinton the ‘92 victory.
If he runs third party than he was in bed with Hillary all along. Similar to McCains bs campaign vs bo
Ross Perot all over again.
Spoilsport Perot handed Clinton the ‘92 victory.
Ross Perot all over again.
Spoilsport Perot handed Clinton the ‘92 victory.
He also supposedly denied this. So which is it?
As an indie. Not going to happen.
You need to understand Trump and his ego.
He doesn't do favors for others. Others do favors for him.
Nobody buys him off. He buys other people off.
Exactly. They are trying every single thing they can.
Trump is showing them to be the spineless backstabbing goobers we always knew they were but nobody said it so loudly in the MSM.
They are scared of losing their phony-baloney jobs, gentlemen (and ladies).
They need an “Hrrrrmphf!!! outta that guy!”.
I don't particularly like Trump as a person, but the guy's in business on a national scale and needs pols from his home state to defend his interests at the Federal level. The Clintons happen to be very influential players at the national level.
Trump has drawn out every ‘pundit’ with a keyboard.
If the GOP wants to abandon the rule of law, then good riddance.
GOP-RIP
Third party bids are always that way. He stays in the party ... or get out completely!!!
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