I’ll repeat how a 3rd Party run is not like Perot’s run in 1992. But it’s going to take a Trump/Cruz team to roll over the Washington Cartel.
It’s not such a small chance today as it was in past elections because of a huge relatively unreported change in voter affiliations. They can do it and win. Many think it will be Perot deja-vu all over again; they would be wrong.
Since 1992 the electorate has changed and since 2012 there has been a seldom reported sea change in voter registration affiliations.
In 2008, 24% of the electorate identified themselves as Independent. After 2012 and by 2014 that number surged to 42% of the electorate identifying themselves as Independent. That is an ENORMOUS change and 2/3’s of those 42% identify themselves as conservatives with most of the rest as moderates or leaning conservative.
As a result of this huge growth in the ranks of Independents, there remain only 27% republican affiliated and 31% democrat affiliated. Of the 27% republican registered, 18% are conservative base and the rest moderate or establishment, and the conservative base are mostly following Cruz and now Trump. Of the democrats 31%, 8% (of electorate) are Latino-Americans and 5% (of electorate) are Reagan democrats. Cruz will take 40% of the Latino vote (as he did in TX) and all of the Reagan democrats or will share them with Trump.
Cruz has also tapped into the 17 million apathetic but conservative-leaning Americans that don’t bother to register or vote because they see a one-party system and correctly determine that the candidates offered represent the same Oligarchs. So they withdraw and stay quiet until they have had contact in town halls with Ted Cruz. Now they are fired up.
There is no danger of a Perot-like splinter of the GOP. There is the very real possibility that Cruz/Trump takes (in % of total electorate) 28% as Independents, 3% Latino-Americans, 5% of Reagan democrats, up to 18% of the GOP conservative base and millions more who are inspired for the first time in a generation to register and show up to vote.
No matter how it is sliced, Trump/Cruz leaves the democrats and GOPe at a loss in a 3-way race. If a 3rd party movement were to emerge, the only way to stop the above confluence of political realities is to fantasize that the democrats and republicans will merge officially <— NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
But a 3rd Party movement is still in the fringe and will likely not happen. However, a merging of Trump and Cruz is very possible.