Posted on 07/29/2015 1:33:02 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Businessman Donald Trump has been surging in polls at the state and national levels and a new one shows him leading in Florida, the home turf of Republican primary rivals former Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.
St. Pete Polls released a survey on behalf of Saint Petersblog on Wednesday which shows Trump in the lead in the Sunshine State with 26 percent. Bush places second with 20 percent. Most polls at this early stage in the process have shown Bush with a solid lead in Florida.
Gov. Scott Walker, R-Wis., places third with 12 percent followed by Rubio with 10 percent.
The rest of the field stands in single digits. Dr. Ben Carson, who moved to South Florida after ending his celebrated medical career, pulls 5 percent. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Gov. John Kasich pull 4 percent each. U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., garners 3 percent.
Other Republican presidential hopefuls and undecided voters make up 16 percent of the total surveyed.
The poll finds Bush leading Trump with voters under the age of 30 but the businessman and reality TV star beats the former governor among all other voters.
Trump has a commanding lead over Bush in some of the key TV markets in the state, including Orlando and Tampa, but he has a smaller lead in Miami, Fort Myers, Pensacola and Jacksonville. Bush is ahead in Tallahassee and Gainesville and runs even with Trump in Panama City.
The poll of 1,902 Florida Republicans was taken from July 18-28 and had a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percent.
“The poll was conducted through a Web-based email polling system,” St. Pete Polls noted. “The results were then weighted to account for proportional differences between the respondents' demographics and the demographics of the active Republican primary election voter population for the state of Florida. The weighting demographics used were: race, age, gender and media market. The voters polled were chosen at random within the registered voter population within the state of Florida. The random sample used was made up of a sampling of registered Republican Party voters from the state of Florida.”
The press release says that the marginals are correct....I wonder....
I’m sure the media market marginals vary from cycle to cycle, but when polls go wrong the talking heads say they can’t figure out who is a likely voter.
Back when all the libs were running around screeching about how W stole the 2000 election I reminded some of them that if Gore had been able to carry his own state of Tennessee the Florida loss would not have mattered, Gore would have been president. The people who put him in the senate clearly did not want him in the white house.
Oh, voters, oh, voters don’t treat me so mean
You’re the meanest old voters that I’ve ever seen
But I guess if you say so
I’ll have to pack my things and go
“Jeb’s Spanish language interview gaffes have pushed him completely out of the running. Looks like Jeb may never recover.”
What has he said?
Listening to RINOs and other liberals makes me sick so I haven’t.
Ha ha not surprised! Trump 2016
Have a few debates, but by the end of the year if conservatives have not consolidated behind Walker (and he isn't my personal favorite) the Republican race will be Trump's to lose.
Good point. Online polls are easy to manipulate.
Excellent break down! Thank you.
TWO of the markets polled (Miami and Orange...orlando) are Democrat. West Palm is too I think.
There is a reason they polled these places and nowhere else...
The entire state is divided into “media markets” and every county is in exactly one media market.
http://www.fortreport.com/news-sources-links/florida-news-links-by-media-market.html
Florida has a closed primary; only Republicans were polled.
Now they don’t say where in the media market the respondents were from.
Based on the 2012 primary, most of the Republicans in the Miami media market are in Miami-Dade County. Support for Romney was weaker in Broward and Monroe.
Similarly, most of the Republicans in the WPB media market are in Palm Beach County. Again support for Romney was weaker outside the dominant county.
45% of the votes in the Orlando media market in the 2012 primary were cast in Orange County, with another 43% in Brevard. Compared to the other two media markets, this one is fairly homogeneous.
Cool. Interesting break down. Thank you
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