In 2008, we had a massive housing bubble created by sub-prime mortgages.
Where's the bubble now?
I am looking at the commodity prices, lumber and oil prices. An expanding economy has these prices rising not falling. Never ever has an economy expanded with declining commodity prices.
The stock markets around the world are ALL collapsing. No exception.
The last one to go will be the US stock market.
The average GDP to date is .8% which is recession country. The participation rate is the lowest it’s been in 40 years. Food stamp recipients are rising not falling.
The GDP was forecasted to .7% in q3 but adjusted upward to 1.3% because banks are making subprime loans again and drowning in them. We do not know if that is the real figure until it is adjusted again to the real number.
“The Atlanta Fed just increased its forecast for Q3 GDP from +0.7% to +1.3% - though this is still less than half consensus estimates. The driver of this ‘almost doubling’ was due to a 15.3% increase in seasonally adjusted motor vehicle assemblies in July stuffing inventories even fuller. Of course, as we previously noted, this is entirely unsustainable and we await the mean-reversion in August and September.”
With respect to real estate:
“In a flat market, real estate transaction costs are prohibitively expensive. Commissions, closing fees, loan fees, mortgage insurance, transfer taxes and recording fees can easily add up to 8% or more, depending on where you live. Add a few trips to Home Depot or Ikea and the out of pocket expense of a move can be over 10%.
In the coming year, or years, many home owners are going to find that they do not have the equity to pay for a move. At a low or no appreciation rate, it will take years to build up enough equity just to break even. Some who financed their purchases in recent years with low down payment programs will have to incur out of pocket expenses in order to sell. Others may find that their existing homes have not appreciated enough to offset the expenses, providing little down payment and incentive for the trade-up.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-07/real-estate-2015-unlikely-be-what-market-looking
Basically the big ticket items like cars and real estate are going subprime to the max. Seems right before we had the collapse in 2008 people were drowning in subprime.