I believe you're correct. It's just a question of timing the announcement for maximum effect. If Trump sweeps the early primaries and it looks like the RNC is going to try some superdelegate shenanigans to prop up Jeb, I think that's what will pull the trigger to put the RNC on notice that this is their ticket if they want to avoid a third party run.
I agree. As Trump OR Cruz supporters, we really need to hold the line here. It would be good if we could get those guys 1st and 2nd (take your pick) in ever stinking poll we can use FR to alert us to, always keeping them number one and number two, so that their joining up would have the maximum impact. Contributions too. I think their (threat of) joining forces would be too much for the GOPe to fend off or ignore.