We still haven’t gone through the purge yet. Things won’t rebound until after the purge.
What do you mean by the “purge”? Thanks.
When the price is low enough, long enough, that the marginal producers shut down.
With the decrease in the amount of production, combined with a low price (which will help increase consumption), the price will bottom out and slowly rise. It will not happen overnight. I think the prices will have to bottom out for about 6 months. Can’t say what the bottom will be - maybe $30-$35. There may be some spikes downward, but those will be very short term.
In the spring, when the price hit the low 40s and began to rebound, that was not the market. That was manipulation. The manipulation could only last for so long. Now the market forces are taking over and driving the prices down again.