We will see, but I don’t see it the same. I admit I tended to write off Trump and ideologically he is not my guy, but after watching him on the stump its clear to see why he is connecting and growing and the others are not.
Last cycle we had the flavor of the month as folks who didn’t want the GOPe kept locking in on one not ready for prime time candidate to another, and the GOPe guy just rode it out... that’s not happening this time... there is truly something unique and different going on here compared to last time around.
It is clear to see why he is connecting and why his support is growing across the political spectrum by watching him. I admit, I wrote him off early as just a self promoter, but after actually seeing him on the stump so to speak, there is no denying he’s got legs, and they are bigger and broader than anyone gave him credit for.
Could he screw up? Sure.. but he’s going to have to be the one to screw up... I don’t see any of the other candidates or the press being able to shoot him down... No other politician can take him on and win, and so far Trump has beat the press every time they have decided to try to.
Time will tell, but there is something there and its happening in spite of all the attempts by the powers that be to prevent it.
Last time, Romney had the built-in Mormon support which propped up his numbers with a solid base and kept him as the marginal frontrunner. The GOPe used that to tell the rubes and noobs among the primary voters that he was the inevitable chosen one, which coupled with his big money was just enough to get him over the hump.
It has no parallel this time, since Jeb has absolutely no built-in base of support besides the donors, unless the GOPe can get a bunch of illegals registered to vote in the primary. He doesn’t have McCain’s military record either. He has absolutely nothing special to set him apart from the other candidates except a familial relation to two past presidents whose presidencies both went down in political flames.
Trump’s speech in Iowa this week was a masterpiece of political theater. His oratorical style is as natural and unscripted as it is carefully measured and thought out. He might be shooting from the hip but he has the training of a master marksman to back it up. He may be a non-politician but he’s also a natural politician. He’s doing what all the other guys are trying to do but doing it a lot better.
Remember Howard Dean? He was the left’s “we’re angry and not going to take it anymore” candidate in 2004. He led in many polls, drew huge crowds, had all the energy of the liberal grassroots - and ended up finishing 3rd in Iowa and imploding in his speech that night with the famous “Dean Scream”. No one saw that coming. John Kerry won the nomination, the very candidate the leftist grass roots hated. Maybe with good reason since he went on to lose.
Trump has a lot of good qualities on the stump, but he is not an ideological conservative and without being grounded in true conservative thought he is prone to say some pretty sketchy things that aren’t going to appeal to conservative primary voters. A few of those things he can get away with, but they will pile up over time. Also primary voters start eyeing electability the closer we get to really casting primary ballots. I think most polls will show him losing by sizable margins to whoever the Democrat candidate is by that time, and that is going to give a lot of GOP primary voters pause.