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A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
Fivethirtyeight ^ | 8/31/2015 | Nate Silver

Posted on 08/31/2015 1:58:17 PM PDT by rickyrikardo

One question we’ve asked about Donald Trump’s campaign is what would happen if another candidate were to get a surge of media coverage, throwing a wrench in the works of Trump’s perpetual attention machine. Based on the latest polls, we may soon get the best test of this question since Trump entered the race.

The potential surger is Ben Carson, the much-awarded neurosurgeon who is running for political office for the first time. Carson is near the top of the Republican field in two new polls of Iowa. A Monmouth University poll has Carson with 23 percent of the vote and tied for the lead with Trump, while the Des Moines Register’s poll has Carson in second place, with 18 percent of the vote to Trump’s 23 percent. Carson has also been gaining ground in national polls and is in second place behind Trump, according to Huffington Post Pollster’s averaging method.

Carson’s gains in the polls have come organically — in fact, he’s been receiving remarkably little media attention. From June 28 through Aug. 20, Carson received only 0.9 percent of the news coverage of the top 161 Republican candidates, based on the number of Google News “hits” he received. That puts him at 14th in the field. Trump has received about 60 times more media coverage than Carson.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2ndamendment; carson; news; trump
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To: DouglasKC

Carson and Trump could have a TEA Summit and bang out a treaty of cooperation against the GOPee.


41 posted on 08/31/2015 2:27:24 PM PDT by Paladin2 (Ive given up on aphostrophys and spell chek on my current device...)
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To: Hostage
Rove and surrogates have identified that polls have helped shape Trump’s aura of invincibility. Therefore, a launch of paid/push polls showing Trump is vulnerable might deflate his balloon.

Insightful. Also Carson is a very low person to use for the tip of this spear as opposed to Fiorina or Rand Paul or someone like that.

42 posted on 08/31/2015 2:27:26 PM PDT by palmer (Net "neutrality" = Obama turning the internet into FlixNet)
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To: palmer

The FR circular firing squad is able to seize on any flaw!


43 posted on 08/31/2015 2:27:42 PM PDT by nascarnation (Impeach, convict, deport)
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To: Hostage

They are testing the waters with this a trial balloon.”

Lots of noise from the lame stream media about “what goes up must come down”. The only person whose last name starts with a “C” that our family would vote for would be Cruz. Carson might make a good Surgeon General but beyond that he is way over his head. But at least he’s 100% Black and he does clean up well, to paraphrase a former candidate when BO first ran.


44 posted on 08/31/2015 2:29:11 PM PDT by Grams A (The Sun will rise in the East in the morning and God is still on his throne.)
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To: DouglasKC
Trump just has to say, Look I like Ben Carson. He’s a great doctor and a wise man. He’s probably a better man then me. But we’re in a fight for our country right now and we don’t need a nice guy. We need a warrior.

He did say something pretty close to that in a radio interview a few days back.


45 posted on 08/31/2015 2:31:23 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: palmer
Also in the big picture it is a minor issue.

Minor to you perhaps. Let the government dictate what you must put into you or your child's body and they'll never stop adding to the demands. Particularly after Pfizer has paid them to do it.


46 posted on 08/31/2015 2:33:00 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: The Sons of Liberty

Ditto to that.


47 posted on 08/31/2015 2:34:57 PM PDT by Jane Long ("And when thou saidst, Seek ye my face; my heart said unto thee, Thy face, LORD, will I seek")
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To: skeeter

The folks leaving Jebby and Walker needed someplace ‘respectable’ to go... Monmouth p[ool looks like Carson picked up from the other two


48 posted on 08/31/2015 2:36:05 PM PDT by BigEdLB (We need to target the 'Ministry of Virtue' on Iranian bombing runs. It is not vituous)
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To: palmer

The day Karl Rove has to take a job at Burger King because nobody will hire him again as a consultant will be a truly great day for America.


49 posted on 08/31/2015 2:36:09 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: BigEdLB

That makes sense, but it happened awfully fast.


50 posted on 08/31/2015 2:40:10 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: The Sons of Liberty
I agree. I like Carson, but I just cannot imagine him handling V. Putin or the Chinese. He isn't tough enough. Also, I doubt he understands the economy as well as D. Trump. And it is jobs that is a major issue.

iirc, Carson made comments regarding illegals that I found disturbing. This was some time ago and perhaps he has changed his mind.

51 posted on 08/31/2015 2:41:25 PM PDT by apocalypto
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To: The Sons of Liberty
What does Carson say about immigration?

NumbersUSA gives him a C minus.

In an August 2015 Meet The Press Interview Dr. Ben Carson revealed that he favors giving millions of illegal aliens guest worker status. He stated, “Well, you know, I have heard people say, ‘Yeah, round them all up and send them back.’ They have no idea what they're talking about and how much that costs and how impractical that is. And many of these people don't know any other places, this is the only place they've been. So where are you going to send them back to in that situation? What I would do instead is let them register and become guest workers, they have to back tax penalty, and they have to pay taxes going forward. It does not give them voting rights, it does not make them a citizen, and if they want citizenship, they get in the back of the line and go through the same process as everybody else, because we cannot neglect the people who have done it the right way.” Source

52 posted on 08/31/2015 2:46:05 PM PDT by kabar
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To: rickyrikardo

Carson is a good guy and I think he would make a great President, but I think Trump is better suited and has better issues. That said, I suspect that Carson’s jump in polls is temporary and probably doesn’t reflect all of the new voters Trump is bringing in. I’ve not even heard any buzz about him anywhere except for a vague positive impression of him. That makes me think that his polling is based on that positive impression. Trump’s is far stronger.


53 posted on 08/31/2015 2:46:51 PM PDT by Greetings_Puny_Humans (I mostly come out at night... mostly.)
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To: rickyrikardo

Its just one poll FCOL. sheesh— lets not get carried away.


54 posted on 08/31/2015 2:50:47 PM PDT by tflabo (Psalm 1)
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To: The Sons of Liberty

Carson is great as head of the VA or Health and Human Services. Not as President.


55 posted on 08/31/2015 2:51:19 PM PDT by tbw2
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To: JudyinCanada

Carson seems like a complete neophyte on foreign policy. He was stumped early on with some questions and is clearly learning the basics of foreign policy as he goes along.

Forget about being tough with foreign leaders, he’s never run a campaign before and I don’t think he’d even be tough enough to take on the Democrats in a competent and successful way. The main reason we’ve lost to the Democrats in every campaign is because our candidates are afraid to say bad things about them and attack them. That’s why Cruz and Trump have advantages.


56 posted on 08/31/2015 2:51:36 PM PDT by JediJones (The #1 Must-see Filibuster of the Year: TEXAS TED AND THE CONSERVATIVE CRUZ-ADE)
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To: rickyrikardo

Carson fails on the second amendment civil rights issue.


57 posted on 08/31/2015 2:51:44 PM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: Buckeye McFrog
Minor to you perhaps. Let the government dictate what you must put into you or your child's body...

All true (I have no kids). The science is very strong that measles, polio, etc etc etc are all greatly diminished due to vaccines, but the catch is your kid is more likely to have serious injuries from vaccines (e.g. debilitating brain injury) than to have a serious injury from any vaccinated diseases in a well-vaccinated country like ours. A dilemma, but not a slippery slope if you elect and monitor local health authorities who mandate vaccination.

58 posted on 08/31/2015 2:52:04 PM PDT by palmer (Net "neutrality" = Obama turning the internet into FlixNet)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

That’s true.


59 posted on 08/31/2015 2:52:30 PM PDT by palmer (Net "neutrality" = Obama turning the internet into FlixNet)
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To: JediJones

so where is he getting the money? who is funding him? Is he a “disposable” vote splitter?


60 posted on 08/31/2015 2:52:44 PM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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