“Yeah, why would a bunch of bureaucrats deliberately fictionalize their intelligence product on their own? “
Ever heard of the echo chamber effect? It is amplified exponentially in the classified world due to the size of the audience. It is not an Obama conspiracy, though Obama’s policies have markedly increased the effects. The echo chamber is the primary reason that intel organizations often rely on outsiders for analysis.
Everyone wants to look good. Firsthand BDA is always wildly optimistic—analysis is supposed to bring it back to reality. An unspoken agenda to make the war effort look good is implicit in the current environment. I think it is inevitable: Propaganda is the last resort of poor strategy.
Good point. I spent 13 months in Vietnam. When reporting the results of air or artillery strikes we often erred on the side of higher numbers. We were dependent on air and artillery so we wanted to keep those people enthusiastic about their roles. At the time I never thought I might be contributing to a distortion at the theater level. But historically that’s what was happening.
Yes, I love performing Bavarian Dumpling Assessments!