RE: I still predict Carson wins Iowa.
Santorum won Iowa in 2012.
Santorum secured the victory over Romney by a margin of 34 votes with Ron Paul in a strong 3rd.
I think Trump is settling into the Ron Paul of this primary. He has the crankiest message, the kookiest supporters and the establishment looks on him with confusion, dismissiveness and occasionally as a sort of strange, lovable uncle. He could come third in Iowa.
Carson is winning the social conservative angle. Huckabee and Santorum simply are being dismissed as failures. And Cruz just seems to be being dismissed for simply looking too much like a politician. And he doesn’t seem to have focused on Iowa as his number one target, which seems like a mistake to me.
The establishment choice is in flux. Seems like their new goal is to settle on one name by February. Walker sent that message loud and clear. But Bush, Rubio and Fiorina are struggling to get that position while Kasich and Christie are nibbling at their crumbs. One thing’s for sure, the establishment choice will spend a ton of money in Iowa and probably get 2nd place just as Romney did by slamming Trump, Carson and Cruz.