[LS]

Doubt it. Trump 20 points ahead of Cruz in IA.

[JediJones]

Santorum wasn’t leading in the polls in Iowa either and ended up winning. Iowans don’t really decide until the last few days. And the support tends to roll out quickly in waves once the power players make their endorsements, largely leaning towards the strongest social conservative.

These primary polls taken this early are mostly smoke and mirrors. Almost everyone is undecided and the pollsters force them to pick the choice they’re “leaning to.”

Here is the last Iowa caucus results compared to an NYT poll taken 20 days before:

IOWA ACTUAL:

2012 - Rick Santorum (25%), Mitt Romney (25%), Ron Paul (21%), Newt Gingrich (13%), Rick Perry (10%), Michele Bachmann (5%), and Jon Huntsman (0.6%)

IOWA POLL 20 DAYS BEFORE:

2012 - Newt Gingrich (31%), Mitt Romney (17%), Ron Paul (16%), Rick Perry (11%), Michele Bachmann (9%), Rick Santorum (4%), and Jon Huntsman (1%)

[VinL]

Meaningless polls, imo. Walker was up by double digits. If Donald is up by 20 in December, then he’s good.

But, you’re probably right, we’ll see.