The US Government is going to anally rape VW. They took on a calculated risk of fraud, and now they will pay.
There are plenty of US Government agencies and local governments who could use a top-up to their budgets, and plenty of government-sponsored enviro and leftist pressure groups who would love some walking-around money. Moreover, there are politicians, like Eric Schneiderman in NY, who would love to make their name prosecuting VW.
I’m guessing $15 billion, depending on how hard Merkel pushes back.
The EU is also likely to go after VW because of violation of EU environmental regulations.