Posted on 10/08/2015 12:47:48 PM PDT by VinL
Will Ted Cruz pick up Trump’s supporters if the mogul starts to fade? Many, if not most, reporters seem to think so. Cruz himself may think so. The data, however, strongly suggest this a fool’s errand.
As I’ve written elsewhere (here, most recently), Trump supporters come from all factions of the GOP. Indeed, most polls show that Trump runs better among self-described moderates than among very conservative voters. Cruz, however, has always been a candidate of the Tea Party/very conservative base. Virtually every poll shows that he is best thought of by very conservative voters, who number about a third of the party nationwide.
Moreover, so far he draws almost all of his support from self-described Tea Party voters who are an even smaller number. Despite what the media tell you, the polls are clear that Tea Partiers and very conservative voters are a minority within the GOP by a large margin.
Cruz’s troubles can best be seen in the PPP national poll of GOP primary voters released this morning. While this is only one poll, it shows what every other poll to date has shown regarding the huge differences between Cruz’s and Trump’s support. Cruz is favored by 7 percent of PPP poll respondents. That number jumps to 15 percent among Tea Partiers, good enough to put him in third place. But that’s only 18 percent of the sample.
Sixty-eight percent say they are not Tea Party supporters, and Cruz’s support slumps to a mere five percent among them. This distinction is seen even more starkly in a question only PPP asks. PPP asks GOP voters which they prefer in a nominee, a candidate who is the most conservative on the issues or one with the best chance of beating the Democrat.
Thirty-six percent say they want the most conservative candidate, and Cruz polls a respectable 14 percent among them. Fifty-one percent choose electability, however, and only an anemic two percent of these voters choose Cruz. This pattern – Cruz only appeals to the very conservative voter – holds no matter how you slice the electorate. He gets 15 percent among very conservative voters, again good enough for third. But that’s only thirty percent of the national GOP electorate. His support drops to 5 percent among the largest ideological faction, somewhat conservatives, and plummets to a mere three percent among moderates and liberals....
Cruz has based his entire career on the premise that very conservative voters are the ignored majority among Republicans. That may be true in the Republican South, but it is not true nationally. The very image that draws many Republicans to him repels or annoys a larger number.
To put it in terms he might understand, a majority of Republican voters have more in common with Mitch McConnell than with him. Until he realizes that and does something to make those voters like him, Cruz will remain a polarizing figure who has no chance to become the nominee, let alone President.
Trump is an executive and visionary by his nature.
Cruz is a deft parliamentarian, by his nature.
Trump/Cruz.
Great team.
Cruz has made it a point to not attack Donald Trump, and I will follow Ted’s example. I admit Trump is not as conservative as I would like, but if he can get some of the messages out that people would ignore if it were Cruz saying the same thing, then I think Trump being in this race is a positive.
I think all of the candidates on both side would love to be “fading” like Trump.
People would choose Cruz over McConnell. But the author is right that Trump’s appeal is far wider than Cruz’s.
Trump won me with his stance 5 years ago on trade policy. Cruz would have lost me completely on trade policy except the other candidates are just as bad as Cruz.
Cruz is great on abortion and marriage. But we need a much different congress before we can make real progress on those issues. And you can’t win the presidency at this time on those issues.
This analysis shows the obvious, the voters polled mainly want someone who will win... that’s not a surprise. Cruz will have to be able to present that he has a legitimate shot at winning, and if he does that, He’ll see his support grow among the other groups.
I do think Cruz will not cross the party line as well as I am sure Trump will. Cruz is too divisive in ways that will hinder him with the independent and blue dog democratic voter. He also is not nearly as charismatic in general.. but none of these candidates sans Donald and the NY Governor have any personality to speak of.
“To put it in terms he might understand, a majority of Republican voters have more in common with Mitch McConnell than with him.”
So he’s saying a majority of Republican voters are corrupt, lying bastards? This guy ought to be tarred and feathered along with most of the rest of the lousy NR hacks.
I have reservations about Cruz but they are tiny compared to the other candidates - most definitely I’d switch to Cruz. I’m just giddy I have a choice this time. Go Team America!
Cruz has a solid strategy, it remains to be seen if he can garner the delegates for the nomination. But he has my vote and my support all the way to the end!
The answer to your faux situation in the headline: Cruz won’t get Trump’s supporters because they’ll stick with Trump all the way to the White House. Duh!
Ah, but see? He’s “conservative” on issues like illegal immigration that motivate a large chunk of the GOP’s conservative base.
That makes it a bit more “nuanced” than Ted Cruz = conservative, so Trump supporters =/= Ted Cruz supporters if Trump does implode.
Cruz lacks money?
I don’t think Trump supporters have a darn thing in common with McConnell. In fact, Sen. Cruz has more in common with him, and that is PRECISELY why they aren’t going to vote for him. The vote in favor of TPA and the fact that he wants to triple H1-B visas are both putting nails in the coffin of Cruz’s candidacy.
I don’t think this article is anything more than an attempt to get Cruz to come further over to the dark side.
What’s the problem with Cruz’s vote for fast track (TPA)?
[I support Trump and Cruz]
There are MANY who feel this way................
including me
It took that train wreck TPP from needing 2/3 to only needing a simple majority to pass.
TPP is not going to pass— Cruz knew that.
Cruz is not picking up Trump supporters because they are supporting Trump
Just Duh
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