Bush had 62,040,610 votes in 2004. Romney had a bit more than McCain, but still only 60,933,500. So the difference between 2004 and 2012 is either explained by people staying home, switching to Obama, going to jail or dying.
Still, that difference would not have been enough to make McCain or Romney beat Obama. Obama’s victories have been based not on Republicans staying home, but on Barry accumulating 5 to 9 million voters who seem to have never voted before.
If the Democrats hold on to at least Obama’s 2012 number, there is no way for Republicans to win without doing the same, finding voters who probably have never voted before. If they’re out there, then they have been staying home for a long time.
The only other possible strategy is to make the Democrat voters stay home or switch parties.
Exactly right. Obviously, a R cannot alienate the base as Romney and McCain did and hope that he gets a 90% turnout.