Posted on 10/19/2015 6:59:50 PM PDT by markomalley
This weekend was an inflection point in the Republican presidential race — a moment in which some significant part of the GOP establishment came out of denial and realized Donald Trump might well become their party's nominee.
"The Republican establishment, for the first time, is saying, off the record, this guy can win," noted Joe Scarborough on MSNBC Monday morning. "I've heard that from everybody. I don't hear anybody saying he can't win the nomination anymore."
That doesn't mean Republicans have made their peace with a Trump victory. On the contrary — some are preparing to do whatever it takes to bring him down. Which could lead to an extraordinary scenario in which GOP stalwarts go to war to destroy their own party's likely nominee.
"Massive resistance," was the answer. "He's not a conservative."
Insiders have watched as Trump defied what many believed were immutable laws of the political universe. First they thought Trump wouldn't run. Then they thought voters wouldn't take a reality-TV star seriously. Then they thought gaffes would kill Trump as they had other candidates. None of that turned out as expected.
But there is one belief Trump has not yet tested, and that is the political insiders' unshakeable faith that negative ads work.
"I don't think Trump can withstand 10,000 points of smart negative in Iowa and New Hampshire," says one veteran Republican strategist who is not affiliated with any campaign. "It would force him to spend money. That's when this starts to get real for him." ("Points" refers to gross ratings points, a way of measuring TV ad buys; 10,000 points would be a really big buy, meaning the average viewer would see an anti-Trump ad many, many times.)
There is no central anti-Trump conspiracy. But one group that would like to play a leading role in taking him down is the Club for Growth. In September, the Club ran two ads against Trump in Iowa — 2,000 points — with one arguing that Trump is not a true conservative and the other hitting Trump for his support of the Supreme Court's Kelo decision on eminent domain.
"We primed the pump with our ads in Iowa," says Club president David McIntosh. "We did some polling afterward. The ads flipped Trump from first to second place among caucus-goers and put a dent in his approval rating."
McIntosh is looking for donors to fund an anti-Trump campaign that would hit hard in the month before voting begins. It might be a Club for Growth production, or it might be a combination of efforts. "There is no other group that has decided to do it," says McIntosh. "There are a large number of donors and political activists who want to do it."
The triggers for the anti-Trump onslaught would likely be: 1) if next month arrives with Trump still in the lead, and 2) if Trump begins airing his own ads. "Once that starts, you'll see a lot of people saying we've waited long enough," notes McIntosh.
While that is going on, officials at the Republican National Committee vow to stay out of things. Asked what role the RNC might play in any movement against Trump, strategist and spokesman Sean Spicer said, "None. None. Zero. It is up to Republican voters to decide who our nominee is, not the RNC." Indeed, other sources inside the RNC say chairman Reince Priebus has stressed to staff that they must stay out of candidate fights.
The anti-Trump campaign will face several challenges. The biggest is the voters who support Trump. Conservative groups like the Club believe they can convince those voters that Trump is not a true conservative. Perhaps they can. But what if a large number of his voters are not wed to conservative orthodoxy as defined by Washington-based organizations?
The other problem is Trump himself. If he decides to spend serious money on his campaign — and some GOP veterans still aren't convinced he will — he can launch a serious counterpunch to any anti-Trump campaign.
And then there is the fact that Trump is improving as a candidate. Just look at Sunday's interview on "Fox News Sunday" in which he was sharp, focused, and forceful. A talented candidate who does something over and over again will get better at it. Trump is better than he was just a month ago, which is not good news for his opponents.
Some anti-Trump Republicans still harbor hope Trump will begin to fade all by himself. Yes, Trump, who has been atop the RealClearPolitics average of national polls for three months straight, has outlasted the various flavor-of-the-months from the 2012 GOP race. But opponents point out that Rudy Giuliani led the poll average for an incredibly long time four years earlier — from February 2007 to January 2008 — before sinking when voting actually began. Their hope is the same will happen to Trump.
It could. But a closer look at the 2007-2008 polls shows that Giuliani was almost always trailing in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. And of course, ignoring the early states killed his candidacy. Trump, on the other hand, is on top in those three states, plus Nevada — all the states that will vote first in February. His organization is growing. He is hiring smart operatives. The Giuliani analogy doesn't apply.
Which makes it more likely that the anti-Trump forces will ultimately have to take it on themselves to go on the attack. Their core belief is that Trump cannot withstand a long and withering bombardment of negative ads. But core beliefs have been cast aside repeatedly in this race. That might happen again.
if they are going to use the conservative reason, they would back Cruz. They are full of chit and make me sick
Trump has spent zero on ads. LoL, the Clubber’s run anti-Trump ads then run their own poll to show that they made progress. Silly derp.
As I stated on several occasions in the past, the down ballot is where the whole country changes because of Trump coat tails if this keeps going like it is.
How many potential true citizen legislators are just waiting in the wings for a chance if only they did not have to navigate the establishment minefields?
Now, go look at when the filing deadlines are in relation to the Presidential primaries and there is lots of time after the primaries to hang ten and catch the wave. In Florida, the deadlines are not until late June. Months after the SEC Primary. It could possibly be that Trump could have it in the bag after that and the wave riding his coat tails could be stunning.
With 34 Senate seats and all 435 Congressional on the down ballot, including further down, if just a swing of 25% is achieved, the change would be unthinkable. Now these establishment clowns are doubling down and eventually tripling down to an eventual extinction all at their own power grabbing hands.
This is the Trump Train:
He has told us about immigration, and how he would handle it;
He has shown that if we had good immigration laws, we wouldn’t have the people that blew up the World Trade Center Buildings, the Pentagon...and has proven what needs to be done to enact the laws;
He has told us about how to get jobs back into America, and what he would do to do it;
He has a tax plan, and how it works;
He has a gun plan, and how he would work it;
He has told us obumacare is bad for the country, and what he would do about it;
He has told us that the immigrants are being treated better than our vets, and what he would do to change it;
He has told us why he is financing his own campaign and why he is doing that;
He has told us that he wants Education back in the States, not in the federal government and why;
He has told us why he wants to shut down the EPA, and the reasons why;
He has told us why P.C. is so bad, and how it is taking away our expression of the freedoms we have;
So this is why my support goes to Trump, he makes deals, he runs multi billion dollar companies, and owns them, with someone as brilliant as this, I want someone to put America on its feet again....
They could save millions of dollars if someone would explain the phrase "screwed the pooch" to them.
It's not about what The Donald IS. It's about what he ISN'T. And what he ISN'T is THEM!
Why would Trump run adds? They’re doing it all for him the nimrods.
I see the possibility of a 50 state sweep.
The true irony of the “ad buy” is that very few people watch commercials anymore. Welcome to the new media election where Trump is at the helm.
Byron York?
He is so GOPe....NRO alum...Weekly Standard.....American Spectator......anything this side of Birchers.....since early 80s
I guess his family in Alabama must have slapped him around and made him do right,,,
Unlikely. Rudy led a weak field based on his popularity accrued after 9/11, and not on any strong policy positions compared to other candidates. Then he ignored the first three states, thinking he'd make a stand in Florida. Didn't work.
Trump has the popularity, but also has taken policy positions on illegal immigration and one-sided trade agreements that brings the support of large numbers of Republicans who've been dissatisfied with the party's stances on those issues for many years. He's also viewed as most able to improve our sluggish economy, and campaigns weekly in the early states.
And I thought Jeb has been running his big negative ad campaign in the three early states since mid-September or earlier. No impact there.
I do also...but Trump hasn’t even begun yet....wait until he takes the nomination, then your going to see some fire works!!!
WOOHOO TRUMP!!! all the way to the Oval Office!!!
Thank you HarleyLady27.
You and I are on the same page. = :^)
Damn Right!
“He’s not a conservative.”
That is odd. Neither are the GOP Establishment.
You are right about the fact that the more they gang up to try to take Donald down, the more bruised they will become! :)
Rather than the end of the Republican Party, I would hope this leads to a conservative resurgence and takeover of the party. The hard left worked for decades within the Democrat party and it is now a hard left party. Would hope that true, principled conservatives can make the Republican party into a truly pro-American, limited-government party. In other words, we should do for the side of good in the Republican party what the hard left has done for evil in the Democrat party. As for the establishment, don’t worry, they will still be there, claiming that they were always for Trump (and Cruz), just like they were always for Reagan, and can they please just have their money and perks.
So, you don’t believe the part of the article where the RNC declared its neutrality?
What I find ironic is “they” expect to take Trump down using a weapon he has clearly shown dominance in wielding.
Nobody is smart enough to write a good Chuck Norris joke that makes him a wimp, but most people are smart enough to not even try.
I noticed that in less than one week after the democrat debate Trump gained 200,000 new twitter followers. The more Trump gets exposure of any kind the more popular he becomes.
It is as if Trump planned for this kind of media even before he even announced and everything is going according to plan. The carpet bombing he is doing on Bush is a carefully devised plan to neuter Jeb and it is totally working. That story that the 9-11 terrorists were issued Florida driver’s licenses thus making their destruction easier is devastating on the Bush family. That story was carefully crafted by the Trump team to neuter Trump’s main rival. Trump is fileting Jeb.
Compare the establishment Republicans and the Benghazi hearings. It is a total media circus with total chaos before the hearing with old thunder thighs.
Trump since he announced has had more than one media circus on his hands except that he knows what to do with them and turn them to his advantage. He always seems to win and come out stronger.
That is why Trump will win. Unlike the media idiots and establishment idiots who have no idea how to manage their images in the media, Trump knows exactly what outcomes he will get and gets them every time.
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