Rubio is rising in large part due to picking up Bush support, as Jebbie goes down the tubes.
There is still a huge anti-politician sentiment out there and I can't see very many Carson OR Trump supporters suddenly deciding to throw their vote to an establishment candidate.
As a non-politician, Carly Fiorina could have been in that Trump/Carson tier and thus benefit by Carson dropping out, but I think she ruined her chances by acting too much like an establishment politician and taking an opportunity (at the debates) to take a cheap shot at Trump while Trump was extending an olive branch.
“If this is true and Carson is forced to drop out, most of his support will go to Trump.”
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
I don’t think he’ll drop out over this directly. The spirit of the story is still there. “Fake but accurate.” It is compounded by his nonsensical pyramid comments. Neither one is devastating alone but the two together start to build an uncomfortable narrative.
But it will likely cost him several points in the polls. Whether that will be enough to make him fold remains to be seen.
Who gets those several poll points is anyone’s guess. I sense a lot of anti-Trump in the Carson people. It is not a slam dunk that they go to Trump.
People may start to yearn for clarity and integrity. In a word, Cruz.
I like Cruz, but I think only Trump can beat Hillary now.