It’s fixed. There are slightly more delegates from liberal states than conservative ones and if that doesn’t tip the balance, the establishment has enough party chosen delegates to make up the difference.
A conservative can certainly win a rigged game. But, it is rigged.
If you’re a conservative, the establishment really wants you to remember your place and role on the GOP plantation. You’re supposed to keep quiet until we get to the “Not voting for the establishment hack is the same as voting for the democrat” phase of the election...
I guess I’m in the minority here, but as a blue state Republican (Illinois) I’m pretty ok with the concept this structure overall - red states are definitely rewarded more than blue states, which is fine to me. I would even be ok with giving additional weight based on state presidential popular vote spread - I think it’s bullshit that North Carolina, where tens millions of dollars had to be spent to squeak a win in 2012 gets more of an electoral college reward than similarly-sized Tennessee, where Romney won by almost twenty points.
To say that we in blue states should be punished at the base, however, is about as unfair as it gets. We are capable of supporting conservatives, after all - Bill Brady almost won the nomination for governor in ‘14, and damn near became governor in 2010 outright. I will also say that outside of the major cities, blue states are as conservative as anywhere.