Posted on 11/17/2015 11:41:51 AM PST by amorphous
A former FBI counter terrorism expert claims the bloody Nov. 13 Paris attack wasn't a full-fledged assault, but a cold-blooded ISIS "test" to assess its ability to launch small, randomized attacks in a major Western city.
That expert, Eric O'Neill, told The Daily Caller News Foundation that ISIS was testing the model he called, "small randomized attacks" when it went on a shooting and bombing spree throughout Paris, killing 129 people and wounding another 352.
"I think this was a test to see how well this could work in a city. Can we coordinate it? Can we effectively carry it out," O'Neill told TheDCNF. "My sense is they are benchmarking themselves. They are going to see if this could be deployed somewhere else because if this was a test, then they passed."
The same test "could have happened in a Washington, D.C. or New York, or Los Angeles and San Francisco, yeah, easily," he said.
In February 2001, O'Neill helped capture the most notorious spy in United States history, Robert Phillip Hanssen. In the three months preceding Hanssen's arrest, O'Neill worked with the spy within the newly minted information assurance division, created to protect all classified FBI intelligence. O'Neill was charged with gaining Hanssen's trust and then using that relationship to slowly draw the traitor out of deep cover.
O'Neill believes the U.S. is next on the terrorist group's target list. He said it is now more likely in the post-attack assessment stage.
ISIS leaders are probably saying, "let's go back to the white board. Let's figure out what we did wrong and what we did right? How could we do better," he said.
Another counter terrorism analyst who requested anonymity agreed, telling TheDCNF that ISIS has abandoned the al-Qaida model, which targeted "symbolic" targets such as the World Trade Center and the Pentagon which were attacked on Sept. 11, 2001.
The ISIS model is to target smaller, "softer" venues that are hard to protect like bars, restaurants, concert halls and public events.
O'Neill said the tactic generates fear because when random attacks occur, no place is safe. "Small randomized attacks cause a much greater sense of terror than one large attack."
The new tactic maximizes fear "because you don't know where the next one is going to hit," O'Neill told TheDCNF.
Not everything went well for the terrorists, according to O'Neil. The bombers at the soccer stadium arrived late and detonated themselves outside.
"If he had been there a little earlier, he might have gone in. It would have been far more devastating," O'Neill said. "My sense is the coordination was off. They started the other shootings too early, or the one with the main bomb at the stadium was too late."
I hope that if they must try another city it is Dallas. I expect at least half of the people in a gathering are packing, it will be fun to see the results.
ISIS isn’t going to waste their time in Malls... the DC power crowd doesn’t shop ‘malls’...
Ok, look they can do it here and have had the capability to do it for some time.
They may not want to because being a free society means we are already armed and not opposed to rounding people up and holding them for a spell...
If/when they do, look for it to take place somewhere there isn’t armed citizens to contend with.
I’m going a little outside the box, but if I was an outsider looking at the United States, these are my thoughts about a terrorist attack here:
I think the terrorists learned after 9/11 that large, coordinated attacks in the United States will bring Americans together and lead to war. In the days and weeks after 9/11, folks of different attitudes and politics actually worked together. Yes, that cohesion was eventually worn away by the American left, but that also took a lot of effort.
So the strategy changed to smaller attacks. Fort Hood, the Boston Marathon, shooting at a recruiting center, snipers in DC. It’s much harder to build up national outrage over someone shooting up a room at a military base, and in any case, the left will be running interference the entire way.
My guess is that Islam is letting us cut our own throats while they watch us from the sidelines. Even now, there are many Facebook posts proclaiming that the attacks in Paris don’t reflect Islam. A young person who goes to college for a safe space isn’t a threat. Our media is consumed by sex and scandal, and our leaders are feckless. If this trend continues, we’ll soon have folks signing up to become Moslems out of admiration for their focus and fortitude.
A cold war in reverse, then, in which our society is surrounded, and slowly rots from the inside.
I know some out there are thinking, “Hey, speak for yourself, buddy boy,” and I’m actually in your corner, but as time progresses away from 9/11, I see less and less understanding of Islam, the threat of Islam, and a desire to fight for our own culture.
IMHO
I would not disagree. I only offer that time isn’t on their side for your consideration. We’re in the final minutes of the last quarter and still ahead by 3. They have the ball, are inside our 50yd line and the clock is ticking. I think sooner or later they’ll try for a “Hail Mary”. I think what we’re seeing in Europe is leading up to it.
Of course if they really wanted to build terror they’d avoid big cities and hit a half-dozen mid sized towns in all corners of the country - a school here, a church there, a shopping mall maybe, a football game perhaps - spread the fear around......
I predict they will assault multiple college campuses across the country simultaneously, they can blend in very easily into college towns.
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