Don’t forget that Turkey is a NATO nation. If Russia should attack Turkey, NATO is obligated to defend Turkey. If NATO defends Turkey the risk may be WWIII. If NATO chooses not to defend Turkey, that will be the end of NATO. The end of NATO may be what Russia is up to...
Russia will do nothing.
Why?
Well, it has three options. The first option is to do nothing, with the reason for this being that, while Russia is not weak, it is not as strong as it wants others to believe it is. Action would mean the inception of a convoluted decision tree of reactions and consequences, with some paths leading to WW3, others leading to a scruff-up with Turkey, and a few even leading to Turkey doing nothing. However, as Russia cannot influence that decision tree, it will do nothing as it is not as strong as would be necessary for it to do as it likes (unlike the US, which - leadership dependent obviously - can genuinely do as it wants/likes without fear of immediate consequences).
The second option Russia can do is what I call 'posturing.' By this, what it would do is to (a) escort every attack plane with a couple of air-to-air fighters (and this would mean Russia bringing several SU-27/30s into the region), or (b) moving up a couple of S-300 platforms nearer to the area so that their long range radars can light up Turkish fighters (and the S-300 can target the Turkish airforce while they are WITHIN Turkey), or (c) both. You'll see the Russians constantly lighting up Turkish fighters with radar, but no missiles fired.
The third option is for Putin to basically unleash ROEs and let Russian fighters/SAMs take out any Turkish fighter that comes close, damn the consequences.
I suspect it will be option 1.
“Don’t forget that Turkey is a NATO nation. If Russia should attack Turkey, NATO is obligated to defend Turkey. If NATO defends Turkey the risk may be WWIII. If NATO chooses not to defend Turkey, that will be the end of NATO. The end of NATO may be what Russia is up to...”
Yow. Well, let’s hope that cooler heads prevail.